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Vikings at Buccaneers

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Vikings2-0 going in
23–16Final
Buccaneers0-2 going in

Sun, Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET · Fox

Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Vikings by 2.2✓, the book by 1.5 — they agree, no lean.

MIN 57%win chanceTB 43%
GordStatsMIN by 2.257% to win · MIN 23–TB 20
BookMIN -1.5O/U 42.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Vikings' pass rush (1st) meets Buccaneers' pass protection (32nd).
  • Buccaneers' red-zone defense (5th) meets Vikings' red-zone offense (28th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Vikings Offense vs Buccaneers Defense

MIN offTB def
EPA per play
27th-0.107th-0.05
Pass EPA
27th-0.0812th+0.05
Run EPA
19th-0.114th-0.28
Success rate
32nd34%5th40%
Explosive plays
25th7%7th7%
Points per drive
22nd1.8013th2.00
Red zone TD
28th44%5th45%
Third downs
20th36%7th33%
Sacks
31st10%25th4%
Turnovers
7th5%18th10%

Vikings: 31.8 sec a snap (16th fastest) · passes 7% less than expected

Buccaneers Offense vs Vikings Defense

TB offMIN def
EPA per play
30th-0.171st-0.20
Pass EPA
31st-0.232nd-0.17
Run EPA
9th-0.045th-0.27
Success rate
27th39%1st31%
Explosive plays
29th6%19th9%
Points per drive
26th1.601st1.11
Red zone TD
30th42%1st18%
Third downs
24th35%1st23%
Sacks
32nd10%1st10%
Turnovers
29th21%7th15%

Buccaneers: 33.0 sec a snap (24th fastest) · passes 7% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Vikings

  • QBKyler Murray-0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.4 · 83 dropbacks · 29th of 32
  • RBAaron Jones-0.06 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 68 carries · 25th in EPA
  • TET.J. Hockenson+0.63 EPA a target · 85% caught · 26 targets · 20th in EPA
  • WRJustin Jefferson+0.73 EPA a target · 75% caught · 16 targets · 15th in EPA

Buccaneers

  • QBBaker Mayfield-0.25 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.1 · 117 dropbacks · 31st of 32
  • RBBucky Irving+0.00 EPA a carry · 4.3 yds · 56 carries · 18th in EPA

Recent Form

Vikings

  • W9-3at Bears+8
  • W39-22vs Packers—

Buccaneers

  • L19-23vs Browns−10
  • L27-33at Bengals—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.