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Steelers at Browns

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Steelers2-1 going in
24–27Final
Browns2-1 going in

Thu, Oct 1 · 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video

Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH

The Call How this works

GordStats had Steelers by 1.2✗, the book by 2.5 — 1.3 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

PIT 54%win chanceCLE 46%
GordStatsPIT by 1.254% to win · PIT 21–CLE 20
BookPIT -2.5O/U 38.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Steelers' run game (4th) meets Browns' run defense (29th).
  • Steelers' third-down defense (6th) meets Browns' third-down offense (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense

PIT offCLE def
EPA per play
15th+0.0012th-0.02
Pass EPA
25th-0.027th-0.02
Run EPA
4th+0.0529th-0.01
Success rate
19th43%18th44%
Explosive plays
14th8%31st11%
Points per drive
23rd1.8614th2.04
Red zone TD
19th55%4th46%
Third downs
28th33%16th40%
Sacks
22nd7%6th8%
Turnovers
18th11%20th11%

Steelers: 32.8 sec a snap (22nd fastest) · passes 8% more than expected

Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense

CLE offPIT def
EPA per play
24th-0.0722nd+0.04
Pass EPA
20th+0.0419th+0.07
Run EPA
30th-0.3322nd-0.03
Success rate
26th39%26th46%
Explosive plays
25th7%30th11%
Points per drive
27th1.7510th1.92
Red zone TD
31st45%8th50%
Third downs
30th31%6th33%
Sacks
32nd10%14th6%
Turnovers
20th11%10th13%

Browns: 29.2 sec a snap (2nd fastest) · passes 7% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Steelers

  • QBAaron Rodgers-0.04 EPA a dropback · CPOE -2.6 · 186 dropbacks · 24th of 31
  • RBJaylen Warren+0.09 EPA a carry · 5.9 yds · 63 carries · 5th in EPA

Browns

  • QBDeshaun Watson+0.04 EPA a dropback · CPOE -4.0 · 175 dropbacks · 17th of 31
  • RBQuinshon Judkins-0.27 EPA a carry · 3.0 yds · 64 carries · 37th in EPA

Recent Form

Steelers

  • W30-27vs Bengals+3
  • L3-20at Patriots−11
  • W20-13vs Falcons—

Browns

  • W21-18vs Panthers+4
  • W23-19at Buccaneers+10
  • L10-34at Jaguars—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.