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Colts vs Commanders

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Colts1-2 going in
30–13Final
Commanders1-2 going in

Sun, Oct 4 · 9:30 AM ET · NFL Net

Neutral site · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · London, England

The Call How this works

GordStats had Colts by 2.3✓, the book by 4.5 — 2.2 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 52 to the book's 46.5: a lean to the Over✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

IND 57%win chanceWSH 43%
GordStatsIND by 2.357% to win · IND 27–WSH 25
BookIND -4.5O/U 46.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Commanders' ball security (2nd) meets Colts' takeaway defense (32nd).
  • Colts' red-zone offense (8th) meets Commanders' red-zone defense (32nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Colts Offense vs Commanders Defense

IND offWSH def
EPA per play
19th-0.0224th+0.05
Pass EPA
27th-0.1222nd+0.12
Run EPA
2nd+0.129th-0.17
Success rate
20th42%25th46%
Explosive plays
10th9%6th7%
Points per drive
11th2.2527th2.61
Red zone TD
8th67%32nd83%
Third downs
24th36%24th44%
Sacks
8th5%27th4%
Turnovers
22nd15%13th12%

Colts: 32.1 sec a snap (18th fastest) · passes 3% more than expected

Commanders Offense vs Colts Defense

WSH offIND def
EPA per play
17th-0.0123rd+0.04
Pass EPA
17th+0.0721st+0.09
Run EPA
19th-0.1232nd+0.03
Success rate
27th39%14th43%
Explosive plays
21st7%21st9%
Points per drive
22nd1.8825th2.46
Red zone TD
20th54%19th62%
Third downs
29th32%4th31%
Sacks
10th5%21st5%
Turnovers
2nd3%32nd4%

Commanders: 31.1 sec a snap (8th fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Colts

  • QBDaniel Jones-0.11 EPA a dropback · CPOE -2.6 · 170 dropbacks · 27th of 31
  • RBJonathan Taylor+0.04 EPA a carry · 4.0 yds · 100 carries · 12th in EPA
  • WRJosh Downs+0.49 EPA a target · 65% caught · 31 targets · 32nd in EPA

Commanders

  • QBJayden Daniels+0.19 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.1 · 98 dropbacks · 10th of 31
  • RBJacory Croskey-Merritt-0.10 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 67 carries · 27th in EPA
  • WRTerry McLaurin+0.52 EPA a target · 58% caught · 24 targets · 30th in EPA

Recent Form

Colts

  • W19-17vs Texans+3
  • L30-33at Chiefs+2
  • L23-41vs Ravens—

Commanders

  • W33-31vs Seahawks+12
  • L20-37at Cowboys−15
  • L22-24at Eagles—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.