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Cowboys at Texans

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Cowboys1-2 going in
34–30Final
Texans0-3 going in

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Reliant Stadium · Houston, TX

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Texans by 4.8✗, the book by 3 — 1.8 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

DAL 36%win chanceHOU 64%
GordStatsHOU by 4.864% to win · DAL 22–HOU 26
BookHOU -3O/U 48.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Texans' ball security (3rd) meets Cowboys' takeaway defense (31st).
  • Cowboys' scoring offense (2nd) meets Texans' scoring defense (21st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Cowboys Offense vs Texans Defense

DAL offHOU def
EPA per play
5th+0.1416th+0.00
Pass EPA
5th+0.2123rd+0.12
Run EPA
9th-0.0312th-0.13
Success rate
3rd49%4th40%
Explosive plays
28th6%25th9%
Points per drive
2nd3.0721st2.15
Red zone TD
2nd79%15th58%
Third downs
4th49%12th38%
Sacks
2nd3%3rd9%
Turnovers
11th9%23rd10%

Cowboys: 30.3 sec a snap (5th fastest) · passes 3% more than expected

Texans Offense vs Cowboys Defense

HOU offDAL def
EPA per play
13th+0.0232nd+0.21
Pass EPA
12th+0.1630th+0.36
Run EPA
27th-0.2124th-0.03
Success rate
14th45%30th50%
Explosive plays
17th8%29th11%
Points per drive
15th2.0828th2.72
Red zone TD
24th53%25th71%
Third downs
18th38%32nd55%
Sacks
21st7%29th3%
Turnovers
3rd4%31st4%

Texans: 32.0 sec a snap (16th fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Cowboys

  • QBDak Prescott+0.18 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.6 · 191 dropbacks · 13th of 31
  • RBJavonte Williams+0.01 EPA a carry · 3.7 yds · 69 carries · 14th in EPA
  • WRCeeDee Lamb+0.75 EPA a target · 80% caught · 45 targets · 10th in EPA

Texans

  • QBC.J. Stroud+0.19 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.4 · 178 dropbacks · 11th of 31
  • RBWoody Marks-0.12 EPA a carry · 3.5 yds · 39 carries · 28th in EPA
  • WRNico Collins+0.75 EPA a target · 76% caught · 25 targets · 7th in EPA
  • WRKayshon Boutte+0.53 EPA a target · 75% caught · 16 targets · 29th in EPA

Recent Form

Cowboys

  • L31-34vs Ravens+1
  • W37-20vs Commanders+15
  • L20-28at Giants—

Texans

  • L17-19at Colts−3
  • L6-20vs Bengals−20
  • L31-36vs Bills—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.