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Packers at Buccaneers

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Packers1-2 going in
17–14Final
Buccaneers0-3 going in

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Buccaneers by 1.4✗, the book had Packers by 3: a lean to Buccaneers +3push.

On the total, GordStats said 47 to the book's 38.5: a lean to the Over✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

GB 46%win chanceTB 54%
GordStatsTB by 1.454% to win · GB 23–TB 24
BookGB -3O/U 38.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Buccaneers' run defense (5th) meets Packers' run game (31st).
  • Buccaneers' run game (7th) meets Packers' run defense (28th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense

GB offTB def
EPA per play
18th-0.015th-0.08
Pass EPA
15th+0.1410th+0.00
Run EPA
31st-0.345th-0.22
Success rate
23rd40%11th42%
Explosive plays
16th8%9th7%
Points per drive
21st1.8911th1.96
Red zone TD
25th50%10th54%
Third downs
32nd28%9th34%
Sacks
9th5%28th3%
Turnovers
19th11%14th12%

Packers: 33.2 sec a snap (26th fastest) · passes 2% less than expected

Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense

TB offGB def
EPA per play
28th-0.1021st+0.04
Pass EPA
29th-0.1612th+0.01
Run EPA
7th+0.0128th-0.02
Success rate
24th40%24th45%
Explosive plays
22nd7%5th6%
Points per drive
29th1.7215th2.04
Red zone TD
27th50%26th72%
Third downs
19th38%25th45%
Sacks
29th9%9th8%
Turnovers
26th17%5th16%

Buccaneers: 33.6 sec a snap (28th fastest) · passes 7% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Packers

  • QBJordan Love+0.10 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.4 · 159 dropbacks · 15th of 31
  • RBMarShawn Lloyd-0.34 EPA a carry · 2.8 yds · 39 carries · 40th in EPA

Buccaneers

  • QBBaker Mayfield-0.25 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.1 · 117 dropbacks · 31st of 31
  • RBBucky Irving+0.08 EPA a carry · 5.2 yds · 71 carries · 6th in EPA

Recent Form

Packers

  • L14-35vs Falcons−28
  • W20-17at Jets−1
  • L22-39at Vikings—

Buccaneers

  • L16-23vs Vikings−5
  • L19-23vs Browns−10
  • L27-33at Bengals—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.