Follow teams and keep your fantasy leagues on every device.

Sign inWhat you get

Jaguars at Bengals

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Jaguars2-1 going in
22–17Final
Bengals2-1 going in

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH

The Call How this works

GordStats had Jaguars by 3.7✓, the book had Bengals by 2.5: a lean to Jaguars +2.5✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

JAX 61%win chanceCIN 39%
GordStatsJAX by 3.761% to win · JAX 26–CIN 23
BookCIN -2.5O/U 51.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Jaguars' third-down offense (5th) meets Bengals' third-down defense (27th).
  • Jaguars' red-zone defense (2nd) meets Bengals' red-zone offense (23rd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense

JAX offCIN def
EPA per play
6th+0.1113th-0.02
Pass EPA
6th+0.216th-0.03
Run EPA
10th-0.0426th-0.03
Success rate
11th46%19th44%
Explosive plays
7th10%26th10%
Points per drive
7th2.6218th2.12
Red zone TD
10th64%3rd41%
Third downs
5th47%27th46%
Sacks
18th6%4th9%
Turnovers
8th6%2nd17%

Jaguars: 32.9 sec a snap (24th fastest) · passes 0% less than expected

Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense

CIN offJAX def
EPA per play
7th+0.113rd-0.13
Pass EPA
10th+0.174th-0.06
Run EPA
12th-0.043rd-0.26
Success rate
4th49%7th40%
Explosive plays
18th8%4th6%
Points per drive
9th2.572nd1.46
Red zone TD
23rd53%2nd33%
Third downs
3rd50%10th35%
Sacks
7th4%20th6%
Turnovers
16th11%3rd17%

Bengals: 32.8 sec a snap (20th fastest) · passes 8% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Jaguars

  • QBTrevor Lawrence+0.26 EPA a dropback · CPOE +5.7 · 157 dropbacks · 5th of 31
  • RBBhayshul Tuten-0.03 EPA a carry · 4.4 yds · 72 carries · 18th in EPA
  • WRParker Washington+0.60 EPA a target · 63% caught · 35 targets · 23rd in EPA
  • WRJakobi Meyers+0.96 EPA a target · 82% caught · 17 targets · 5th in EPA

Bengals

  • QBJoe Burrow+0.21 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.1 · 192 dropbacks · 7th of 31
  • RBChase Brown-0.08 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 59 carries · 26th in EPA
  • WRTee Higgins+0.61 EPA a target · 62% caught · 40 targets · 21st in EPA
  • WRJa'Marr Chase+0.54 EPA a target · 72% caught · 36 targets · 28th in EPA

Recent Form

Jaguars

  • W35-6vs Patriots+28
  • L13-20at Broncos−8
  • W34-10vs Browns—

Bengals

  • L27-30at Steelers−3
  • W20-6at Texans+20
  • W33-27vs Buccaneers—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.