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Jets at Bears

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Jets1-2 going in
12–23Final
Bears2-1 going in

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Soldier Field · Chicago, IL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Bears by 9.7✓, the book by 3.5: a lean to Bears -3.5✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

NYJ 23%win chanceCHI 77%
GordStatsCHI by 9.777% to win · NYJ 18–CHI 28
BookCHI -3.5O/U 43.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Jets' red-zone defense (7th) meets Bears' red-zone offense (32nd).
  • Bears' pass rush (7th) meets Jets' pass protection (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Jets Offense vs Bears Defense

NYJ offCHI def
EPA per play
23rd-0.0514th-0.02
Pass EPA
21st+0.012nd-0.07
Run EPA
21st-0.1331st+0.01
Success rate
18th43%13th42%
Explosive plays
19th8%22nd9%
Points per drive
25th1.798th1.88
Red zone TD
26th50%14th58%
Third downs
23rd36%2nd26%
Sacks
30th9%7th8%
Turnovers
6th6%21st10%

Jets: 33.2 sec a snap (27th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

Bears Offense vs Jets Defense

CHI offNYJ def
EPA per play
11th+0.057th-0.06
Pass EPA
14th+0.1516th+0.03
Run EPA
17th-0.117th-0.19
Success rate
8th47%21st44%
Explosive plays
11th9%15th8%
Points per drive
13th2.209th1.88
Red zone TD
32nd43%7th50%
Third downs
9th44%8th34%
Sacks
13th6%2nd9%
Turnovers
29th19%22nd10%

Bears: 31.3 sec a snap (12th fastest) · passes 4% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Jets

  • QBGeno Smith+0.01 EPA a dropback · CPOE +3.6 · 166 dropbacks · 19th of 31
  • RBBraelon Allen+0.00 EPA a carry · 4.3 yds · 53 carries · 15th in EPA
  • WRGarrett Wilson+0.51 EPA a target · 75% caught · 40 targets · 31st in EPA
  • WRAdonai Mitchell+0.58 EPA a target · 60% caught · 15 targets · 24th in EPA

Bears

  • RBD'Andre Swift-0.16 EPA a carry · 4.0 yds · 68 carries · 32nd in EPA
  • WRKalif Raymond+0.65 EPA a target · 92% caught · 24 targets · 18th in EPA
  • WRRome Odunze+0.44 EPA a target · 64% caught · 22 targets · 38th in EPA

Recent Form

Jets

  • L24-31at Lions+2
  • L17-20vs Packers+1
  • W23-10at Titans—

Bears

  • W27-7vs Eagles+19
  • L3-9vs Vikings−8
  • W59-37at Panthers—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.