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Titans at Ravens

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Titans0-3 going in
18–24Final
Ravens2-1 going in

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD

The Call How this works

GordStats had Ravens by 10.9✓, the book by 11.5 — 0.6 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 46 to the book's 42.5: a lean to the Over✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

TEN 20%win chanceBAL 80%
GordStatsBAL by 10.980% to win · TEN 18–BAL 28
BookBAL -11.5O/U 42.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Ravens' ball security (5th) meets Titans' takeaway defense (30th).
  • Ravens' pass defense (14th) meets Titans' passing game (32nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Titans Offense vs Ravens Defense

TEN offBAL def
EPA per play
31st-0.1717th+0.00
Pass EPA
32nd-0.2114th+0.02
Run EPA
18th-0.1118th-0.08
Success rate
28th38%6th40%
Explosive plays
23rd7%19th8%
Points per drive
32nd1.2320th2.15
Red zone TD
30th46%13th58%
Third downs
25th36%20th42%
Sacks
15th6%22nd5%
Turnovers
17th11%18th12%

Titans: 29.9 sec a snap (4th fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

Ravens Offense vs Titans Defense

BAL offTEN def
EPA per play
9th+0.1128th+0.09
Pass EPA
11th+0.1728th+0.21
Run EPA
5th+0.0416th-0.09
Success rate
5th49%20th44%
Explosive plays
4th11%17th8%
Points per drive
6th2.6523rd2.27
Red zone TD
5th74%20th62%
Third downs
15th40%15th39%
Sacks
23rd7%16th6%
Turnovers
5th5%30th4%

Ravens: 35.4 sec a snap (32nd fastest) · passes 7% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Titans

  • QBCam Ward-0.23 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.9 · 130 dropbacks · 30th of 31
  • RBTony Pollard-0.05 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 65 carries · 22nd in EPA

Ravens

  • QBLamar Jackson+0.32 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.2 · 108 dropbacks · 2nd of 31
  • RBDerrick Henry-0.05 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 94 carries · 20th in EPA
  • WRZay Flowers+0.84 EPA a target · 84% caught · 31 targets · 6th in EPA
  • WRRashod Bateman+0.70 EPA a target · 75% caught · 20 targets · 15th in EPA

Recent Form

Titans

  • L7-12at Giants0
  • L20-24vs Eagles+3
  • L10-23vs Jets—

Ravens

  • W34-31vs Cowboys−1
  • L17-24vs Saints−15
  • W41-23at Colts—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.