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Dolphins at Vikings

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Dolphins0-3 going in
10–15Final
Vikings3-0 going in

Sun, Oct 4 · 4:05 PM ET · Fox

U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Vikings by 9.8✓, the book by 10 — they agree, no lean.

MIA 23%win chanceMIN 77%
GordStatsMIN by 9.877% to win · MIA 16–MIN 25
BookMIN -10O/U 38.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Vikings' defense (1st) meets Dolphins' offense (30th).
  • Vikings' third-down offense (16th) meets Dolphins' third-down defense (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Dolphins Offense vs Vikings Defense

MIA offMIN def
EPA per play
30th-0.141st-0.23
Pass EPA
28th-0.161st-0.21
Run EPA
20th-0.132nd-0.26
Success rate
32nd35%1st31%
Explosive plays
15th8%8th7%
Points per drive
30th1.491st1.07
Red zone TD
28th46%1st25%
Third downs
12th41%1st22%
Sacks
27th9%1st10%
Turnovers
27th17%4th17%

Dolphins: 33.1 sec a snap (25th fastest) · passes 7% less than expected

Vikings Offense vs Dolphins Defense

MIN offMIA def
EPA per play
29th-0.1131st+0.20
Pass EPA
26th-0.0631st+0.37
Run EPA
24th-0.1630th+0.00
Success rate
31st37%32nd53%
Explosive plays
26th7%24th9%
Points per drive
24th1.8531st2.87
Red zone TD
29th46%21st64%
Third downs
16th40%31st54%
Sacks
28th9%32nd3%
Turnovers
10th7%25th9%

Vikings: 32.8 sec a snap (21st fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Dolphins

  • QBMalik Willis-0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE -9.1 · 125 dropbacks · 28th of 31
  • RBOllie Gordon II+0.12 EPA a carry · 5.2 yds · 40 carries · 3rd in EPA

Vikings

  • QBKyler Murray+0.00 EPA a dropback · CPOE +5.3 · 120 dropbacks · 21st of 31
  • RBAaron Jones-0.13 EPA a carry · 4.3 yds · 89 carries · 29th in EPA
  • TET.J. Hockenson+0.63 EPA a target · 85% caught · 27 targets · 19th in EPA
  • WRJustin Jefferson+0.75 EPA a target · 78% caught · 23 targets · 9th in EPA

Recent Form

Dolphins

  • L10-24vs Chiefs−9
  • L13-35at 49ers−13
  • L13-27at Raiders—

Vikings

  • W23-16at Buccaneers+5
  • W9-3at Bears+8
  • W39-22vs Packers—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.