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Broncos at 49ers

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Broncos2-1 going in
14–24Final
49ers3-0 going in

Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM ET · CBS

Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA

The Call How this works

GordStats had 49ers by 3.6✓, the book by 3 — 0.6 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 45 to the book's 48.5: a lean to the Under✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

DEN 39%win chanceSF 61%
GordStatsSF by 3.661% to win · DEN 21–SF 24
BookSF -3O/U 48.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • 49ers' big-play defense (1st) meets Broncos' big-play offense (27th).
  • 49ers' third-down offense (2nd) meets Broncos' third-down defense (26th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Broncos Offense vs 49ers Defense

DEN offSF def
EPA per play
21st-0.0410th-0.04
Pass EPA
24th-0.0115th+0.02
Run EPA
16th-0.106th-0.20
Success rate
25th40%12th42%
Explosive plays
27th6%1st4%
Points per drive
28th1.736th1.82
Red zone TD
17th60%9th50%
Third downs
27th34%17th41%
Sacks
4th3%18th6%
Turnovers
14th10%16th12%

Broncos: 31.2 sec a snap (10th fastest) · passes 2% more than expected

49ers Offense vs Broncos Defense

SF offDEN def
EPA per play
1st+0.236th-0.08
Pass EPA
1st+0.415th-0.06
Run EPA
11th-0.0423rd-0.03
Success rate
1st54%5th40%
Explosive plays
2nd12%16th8%
Points per drive
3rd3.0612th1.98
Red zone TD
1st88%5th50%
Third downs
2nd52%26th46%
Sacks
1st2%13th7%
Turnovers
7th6%12th12%

49ers: 33.7 sec a snap (29th fastest) · passes 3% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Broncos

  • QBBo Nix-0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.5 · 158 dropbacks · 25th of 31
  • RBJ.K. Dobbins-0.16 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 64 carries · 33rd in EPA

49ers

  • QBBrock Purdy+0.42 EPA a dropback · CPOE +4.3 · 149 dropbacks · 1st of 31
  • RBChristian McCaffrey+0.08 EPA a carry · 4.8 yds · 58 carries · 7th in EPA
  • WRMike Evans+1.00 EPA a target · 71% caught · 34 targets · 3rd in EPA

Recent Form

Broncos

  • W30-26vs Rams+5
  • W20-13vs Jaguars+8
  • L10-31at Chiefs—

49ers

  • W36-30vs Cardinals−3
  • W35-13vs Dolphins+13
  • W27-7vs Rams—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.