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Lions at Panthers

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Lions2-1 going in
26–32Final
Panthers1-2 going in

Sun, Oct 4 · 8:20 PM ET · NBC

Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC

The Call How this works

GordStats had Lions by 3✗, the book by 3.5 — they agree, no lean.

DET 59%win chanceCAR 41%
GordStatsDET by 359% to win · DET 28–CAR 24
BookDET -3.5O/U 51.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Lions' scoring offense (1st) meets Panthers' scoring defense (24th).
  • Panthers' big-play offense (5th) meets Lions' big-play defense (28th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Lions Offense vs Panthers Defense

DET offCAR def
EPA per play
4th+0.1415th+0.00
Pass EPA
3rd+0.2520th+0.08
Run EPA
8th-0.0213th-0.13
Success rate
2nd49%16th43%
Explosive plays
6th10%13th8%
Points per drive
1st3.1524th2.37
Red zone TD
4th77%27th73%
Third downs
21st37%22nd43%
Sacks
11th5%25th5%
Turnovers
1st2%11th13%

Lions: 30.3 sec a snap (6th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

Panthers Offense vs Lions Defense

CAR offDET def
EPA per play
8th+0.1130th+0.17
Pass EPA
7th+0.2129th+0.26
Run EPA
15th-0.1021st-0.05
Success rate
16th44%29th49%
Explosive plays
5th11%28th10%
Points per drive
8th2.5929th2.79
Red zone TD
9th65%31st81%
Third downs
20th38%30th51%
Sacks
14th6%5th8%
Turnovers
9th7%24th9%

Panthers: 29.1 sec a snap (1st fastest) · passes 8% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Lions

  • QBJared Goff+0.28 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.2 · 182 dropbacks · 4th of 31
  • RBJahmyr Gibbs+0.05 EPA a carry · 4.9 yds · 95 carries · 11th in EPA
  • TESam LaPorta+0.75 EPA a target · 69% caught · 32 targets · 8th in EPA
  • WRJameson Williams+0.74 EPA a target · 63% caught · 27 targets · 11th in EPA

Panthers

  • QBBryce Young+0.25 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.3 · 160 dropbacks · 6th of 31
  • RBChuba Hubbard+0.03 EPA a carry · 5.0 yds · 56 carries · 13th in EPA
  • WRJalen Coker+0.45 EPA a target · 80% caught · 20 targets · 37th in EPA
  • TEDarren Waller+0.49 EPA a target · 72% caught · 18 targets · 33rd in EPA

Recent Form

Lions

  • W31-24vs Jets−2
  • L31-41at Bills−6
  • W31-30vs Saints—

Panthers

  • L18-21at Browns−4
  • W34-3at Falcons+36
  • L37-59vs Bears—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.