Follow teams and keep your fantasy leagues on every device.

Sign inWhat you get

Falcons at Saints

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Falcons1-2 going in
45–24Final
Saints1-2 going in

Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM ET · ESPN

Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Saints by 2.5✗, the book by 1.5 — 1 point apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 44 to the book's 47.5: a lean to the Under✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

ATL 42%win chanceNO 58%
GordStatsNO by 2.558% to win · ATL 21–NO 23
BookNO -1.5O/U 47.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Falcons' run game (6th) meets Saints' run defense (27th).
  • Falcons' big-play defense (11th) meets Saints' big-play offense (29th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense

ATL offNO def
EPA per play
26th-0.0826th+0.08
Pass EPA
31st-0.1826th+0.16
Run EPA
6th+0.0327th-0.02
Success rate
13th45%31st50%
Explosive plays
9th9%14th8%
Points per drive
16th2.0430th2.85
Red zone TD
6th69%22nd64%
Third downs
11th42%29th50%
Sacks
26th7%19th6%
Turnovers
24th16%26th8%

Falcons: 35.3 sec a snap (31st fastest) · passes 10% less than expected

Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense

NO offATL def
EPA per play
22nd-0.054th-0.09
Pass EPA
22nd+0.018th-0.02
Run EPA
23rd-0.1610th-0.16
Success rate
17th43%3rd39%
Explosive plays
29th6%11th7%
Points per drive
14th2.2013th2.00
Red zone TD
3rd78%17th60%
Third downs
6th46%18th41%
Sacks
16th6%24th5%
Turnovers
30th20%27th7%

Saints: 30.4 sec a snap (7th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Falcons

  • QBMichael Penix Jr.+0.15 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.8 · 78 dropbacks · 14th of 31
  • RBBijan Robinson+0.07 EPA a carry · 5.9 yds · 91 carries · 8th in EPA
  • WRDrake London+0.67 EPA a target · 73% caught · 33 targets · 17th in EPA

Saints

  • QBTyler Shough-0.01 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.2 · 201 dropbacks · 22nd of 31
  • RBTravis Etienne-0.04 EPA a carry · 4.3 yds · 30 carries · 19th in EPA
  • WRChris Olave+0.73 EPA a target · 73% caught · 48 targets · 13th in EPA
  • TEJuwan Johnson+0.57 EPA a target · 81% caught · 27 targets · 25th in EPA

Recent Form

Falcons

  • W35-14at Packers+28
  • L3-34vs Panthers−36
  • L13-20at Steelers—

Saints

  • L27-35vs Raiders−12
  • W24-17at Ravens+15
  • L30-31at Lions—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.