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Buccaneers at Cowboys

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Buccaneers0-4 going in
24–16Final
Cowboys2-2 going in

Thu, Oct 8 · 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video

AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Cowboys by 6.6✗, the book by 8.5 — 1.9 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 52 to the book's 48.5: a lean to the Over✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

TB 31%win chanceDAL 69%
GordStatsDAL by 6.669% to win · TB 23–DAL 29
BookDAL -8.5O/U 48.5
Assumed outBaker MayfieldBuccaneers quarterback

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Buccaneers' big-play defense (7th) meets Cowboys' big-play offense (30th).
  • Buccaneers' run game (7th) meets Cowboys' run defense (26th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense

TB offDAL def
EPA per play
29th-0.1331st+0.18
Pass EPA
30th-0.1931st+0.31
Run EPA
7th-0.0326th-0.04
Success rate
27th39%28th48%
Explosive plays
24th7%31st10%
Points per drive
29th1.6528th2.69
Red zone TD
26th50%23rd68%
Third downs
23rd37%32nd56%
Sacks
29th9%29th4%
Turnovers
26th16%30th5%

Buccaneers: 33.1 sec a snap (26th fastest) · passes 6% less than expected

Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense

DAL offTB def
EPA per play
8th+0.093rd-0.10
Pass EPA
13th+0.145th-0.05
Run EPA
12th-0.047th-0.18
Success rate
7th48%7th41%
Explosive plays
30th5%7th7%
Points per drive
4th2.7512th1.94
Red zone TD
5th74%13th53%
Third downs
5th47%8th34%
Sacks
2nd3%23rd5%
Turnovers
19th11%17th11%

Cowboys: 30.4 sec a snap (5th fastest) · passes 2% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Buccaneers

  • QBJalon Daniels-0.12 EPA a dropback · CPOE -6.2 · 115 dropbacks · 29th of 33
  • RBBucky Irving-0.01 EPA a carry · 4.6 yds · 90 carries · 17th in EPA

Cowboys

  • QBDak Prescott+0.12 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.7 · 221 dropbacks · 15th of 33
  • RBJavonte Williams+0.03 EPA a carry · 3.7 yds · 79 carries · 11th in EPA
  • WRCeeDee Lamb+0.43 EPA a target · 74% caught · 57 targets · 35th in EPA

Recent Form

Buccaneers

  • L14-17vs Packers−4
  • L16-23vs Vikings−5
  • L19-23vs Browns−10
  • L27-33at Bengals—

Cowboys

  • W34-30at Texans+9
  • L31-34vs Ravens+1
  • W37-20vs Commanders+15
  • L20-28at Giants—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.