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Bengals at Dolphins

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Bengals2-2 going in
31–24Final
Dolphins0-4 going in

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Bengals by 3.2✓, the book by 7: a lean to Dolphins +7push.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

CIN 60%win chanceMIA 40%
GordStatsCIN by 3.260% to win · CIN 25–MIA 21
BookCIN -7O/U 44.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bengals' third-down offense (2nd) meets Dolphins' third-down defense (31st).
  • Bengals' takeaway defense (2nd) meets Dolphins' ball security (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense

CIN offMIA def
EPA per play
6th+0.1132nd+0.19
Pass EPA
9th+0.1732nd+0.37
Run EPA
11th-0.0431st+0.00
Success rate
3rd49%32nd53%
Explosive plays
18th8%23rd9%
Points per drive
7th2.5732nd2.87
Red zone TD
21st53%20th64%
Third downs
2nd50%31st54%
Sacks
7th4%32nd3%
Turnovers
17th11%27th9%

Bengals: 32.8 sec a snap (23rd fastest) · passes 8% more than expected

Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense

MIA offCIN def
EPA per play
30th-0.1414th-0.02
Pass EPA
28th-0.167th-0.03
Run EPA
21st-0.1329th-0.03
Success rate
32nd35%19th44%
Explosive plays
14th8%27th10%
Points per drive
30th1.4919th2.12
Red zone TD
30th46%4th41%
Third downs
13th41%28th46%
Sacks
27th9%3rd9%
Turnovers
30th17%2nd17%

Dolphins: 33.1 sec a snap (25th fastest) · passes 7% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bengals

  • QBJoe Burrow+0.21 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.1 · 192 dropbacks · 9th of 33
  • RBChase Brown-0.08 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 59 carries · 24th in EPA
  • WRTee Higgins+0.61 EPA a target · 62% caught · 40 targets · 17th in EPA
  • WRJa'Marr Chase+0.54 EPA a target · 72% caught · 36 targets · 21st in EPA

Dolphins

  • QBMalik Willis-0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE -9.1 · 125 dropbacks · 30th of 33
  • RBOllie Gordon II+0.12 EPA a carry · 5.2 yds · 40 carries · 2nd in EPA

Recent Form

Bengals

  • L17-22vs Jaguars−1
  • L27-30at Steelers−3
  • W20-6at Texans+20
  • W33-27vs Buccaneers—

Dolphins

  • L10-15at Vikings+5
  • L10-24vs Chiefs−9
  • L13-35at 49ers−13
  • L13-27at Raiders—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.