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Texans at Titans

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Texans0-4 going in
26–3Final
Titans0-4 going in

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN

The Call How this works

GordStats had Texans by 5.8✓, the book by 6.5 — 0.7 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 42 to the book's 37.5: a lean to the Over✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

HOU 67%win chanceTEN 33%
GordStatsHOU by 5.867% to win · HOU 24–TEN 18
BookHOU -6.5O/U 37.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Texans' ball security (3rd) meets Titans' takeaway defense (28th).
  • Texans' defense (20th) meets Titans' offense (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Texans Offense vs Titans Defense

HOU offTEN def
EPA per play
11th+0.0624th+0.05
Pass EPA
6th+0.2125th+0.15
Run EPA
25th-0.1715th-0.11
Success rate
13th46%18th43%
Explosive plays
12th9%16th8%
Points per drive
11th2.2922nd2.19
Red zone TD
17th54%16th60%
Third downs
16th39%16th41%
Sacks
17th6%8th8%
Turnovers
3rd5%28th8%

Texans: 31.8 sec a snap (15th fastest) · passes 2% more than expected

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense

TEN offHOU def
EPA per play
31st-0.1620th+0.02
Pass EPA
29th-0.1826th+0.15
Run EPA
18th-0.1113th-0.11
Success rate
25th39%14th42%
Explosive plays
25th6%25th10%
Points per drive
31st1.3823rd2.31
Red zone TD
28th47%19th62%
Third downs
26th35%17th41%
Sacks
11th5%10th7%
Turnovers
18th11%23rd10%

Titans: 30.4 sec a snap (4th fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Texans

  • QBC.J. Stroud+0.22 EPA a dropback · CPOE +3.9 · 213 dropbacks · 8th of 33
  • RBWoody Marks-0.13 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 54 carries · 28th in EPA
  • WRNico Collins+0.80 EPA a target · 73% caught · 30 targets · 5th in EPA
  • WRJaylin Noel+0.79 EPA a target · 79% caught · 19 targets · 6th in EPA

Titans

  • QBCam Ward-0.22 EPA a dropback · CPOE -5.0 · 153 dropbacks · 32nd of 33
  • RBTony Pollard-0.05 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 81 carries · 22nd in EPA

Recent Form

Texans

  • L30-34vs Cowboys−9
  • L17-19at Colts−3
  • L6-20vs Bengals−20
  • L31-36vs Bills—

Titans

  • L18-24at Ravens+5
  • L7-12at Giants0
  • L20-24vs Eagles+3
  • L10-23vs Jets—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.