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Colts at Steelers

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Colts2-2 going in
22–34Final
Steelers2-2 going in

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA

The Call How this works

GordStats had it a coin flip, the book had Steelers by 3: a lean to Colts +3✗.

On the total, GordStats said 47 to the book's 41.5: a lean to the Over✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

IND 51%win chancePIT 49%
GordStatsCoin flip51% to win · IND 24–PIT 23
BookPIT -3O/U 41.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Steelers' run game (4th) meets Colts' run defense (32nd).
  • Steelers' pass defense (8th) meets Colts' passing game (27th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense

IND offPIT def
EPA per play
21st-0.0417th-0.01
Pass EPA
27th-0.108th-0.01
Run EPA
2nd+0.0620th-0.07
Success rate
19th42%17th43%
Explosive plays
10th9%26th10%
Points per drive
14th2.186th1.81
Red zone TD
12th63%11th50%
Third downs
20th38%6th32%
Sacks
19th6%12th7%
Turnovers
27th17%8th13%

Colts: 31.9 sec a snap (16th fastest) · passes 2% more than expected

Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense

PIT offIND def
EPA per play
19th-0.0323rd+0.04
Pass EPA
25th-0.0620th+0.07
Run EPA
4th+0.0332nd+0.01
Success rate
21st42%15th42%
Explosive plays
19th8%18th8%
Points per drive
23rd1.8624th2.42
Red zone TD
20th53%17th61%
Third downs
28th33%4th31%
Sacks
24th7%22nd5%
Turnovers
16th10%31st5%

Steelers: 33.3 sec a snap (27th fastest) · passes 6% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Colts

  • QBDaniel Jones-0.11 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.7 · 220 dropbacks · 28th of 33
  • RBJonathan Taylor-0.01 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 121 carries · 16th in EPA
  • WRJosh Downs+0.41 EPA a target · 62% caught · 39 targets · 40th in EPA

Steelers

  • QBAaron Rodgers-0.09 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.8 · 238 dropbacks · 26th of 33
  • RBJaylen Warren+0.06 EPA a carry · 5.4 yds · 77 carries · 9th in EPA

Recent Form

Colts

  • W30-13vs Commanders+15
  • W19-17vs Texans+3
  • L30-33at Chiefs+2
  • L23-41vs Ravens—

Steelers

  • L24-27at Browns−4
  • W30-27vs Bengals+3
  • L3-20at Patriots−11
  • W20-13vs Falcons—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.