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Vikings at Saints

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Vikings4-0 going in
23–13Final
Saints1-3 going in

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Vikings by 4.6✓, the book by 2.5 — 2.1 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

MIN 64%win chanceNO 36%
GordStatsMIN by 4.664% to win · MIN 23–NO 19
BookMIN -2.5O/U 41.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Vikings' takeaway defense (3rd) meets Saints' ball security (28th).
  • Vikings' third-down offense (14th) meets Saints' third-down defense (29th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense

MIN offNO def
EPA per play
27th-0.1126th+0.07
Pass EPA
26th-0.0624th+0.13
Run EPA
24th-0.1627th-0.04
Success rate
31st37%31st49%
Explosive plays
23rd7%19th8%
Points per drive
24th1.8527th2.66
Red zone TD
31st46%18th62%
Third downs
14th40%29th47%
Sacks
28th9%14th7%
Turnovers
10th7%20th10%

Vikings: 32.8 sec a snap (24th fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense

NO offMIN def
EPA per play
18th-0.031st-0.23
Pass EPA
21st+0.031st-0.21
Run EPA
19th-0.111st-0.26
Success rate
18th42%1st31%
Explosive plays
22nd7%10th7%
Points per drive
12th2.211st1.07
Red zone TD
2nd81%1st25%
Third downs
10th43%1st22%
Sacks
12th5%1st10%
Turnovers
28th17%3rd17%

Saints: 30.2 sec a snap (2nd fastest) · passes 2% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Vikings

  • QBKyler Murray+0.00 EPA a dropback · CPOE +5.3 · 120 dropbacks · 21st of 33
  • RBAaron Jones-0.13 EPA a carry · 4.3 yds · 89 carries · 27th in EPA
  • TET.J. Hockenson+0.63 EPA a target · 85% caught · 27 targets · 15th in EPA
  • WRJustin Jefferson+0.75 EPA a target · 78% caught · 23 targets · 9th in EPA

Saints

  • QBTyler Shough+0.02 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.1 · 228 dropbacks · 18th of 33
  • RBKendre Miller-0.22 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 39 carries · 37th in EPA
  • WRChris Olave+0.68 EPA a target · 73% caught · 52 targets · 12th in EPA
  • TEJuwan Johnson+0.47 EPA a target · 76% caught · 29 targets · 31st in EPA

Recent Form

Vikings

  • W15-10vs Dolphins−5
  • W23-16at Buccaneers+5
  • W9-3at Bears+8
  • W39-22vs Packers—

Saints

  • L24-45vs Falcons−24
  • L27-35vs Raiders−12
  • W24-17at Ravens+15
  • L30-31at Lions—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.