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Broncos at Chargers

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Broncos2-2 going in
23–17Final
Chargers0-4 going in

Sun, Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET · CBS

SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA

The Call How this works

GordStats had Broncos by 1.8✓, the book by 3.5 — 1.7 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

DEN 56%win chanceLAC 44%
GordStatsDEN by 1.856% to win · DEN 21–LAC 20
BookDEN -3.5O/U 42.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Broncos' defense (5th) meets Chargers' offense (32nd).
  • Chargers' third-down defense (5th) meets Broncos' third-down offense (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense

DEN offLAC def
EPA per play
22nd-0.0511th-0.04
Pass EPA
24th-0.0316th+0.03
Run EPA
16th-0.1021st-0.06
Success rate
28th38%20th44%
Explosive plays
29th6%24th9%
Points per drive
27th1.6721st2.16
Red zone TD
11th65%8th50%
Third downs
30th32%5th32%
Sacks
6th4%18th6%
Turnovers
11th8%9th13%

Broncos: 31.6 sec a snap (14th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense

LAC offDEN def
EPA per play
32nd-0.245th-0.08
Pass EPA
31st-0.194th-0.07
Run EPA
30th-0.2825th-0.05
Success rate
30th37%4th40%
Explosive plays
26th6%15th8%
Points per drive
32nd1.278th1.84
Red zone TD
25th50%6th50%
Third downs
27th34%26th45%
Sacks
31st10%9th7%
Turnovers
31st20%7th15%

Chargers: 31.5 sec a snap (13th fastest) · passes 12% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Broncos

  • QBBo Nix-0.09 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.5 · 187 dropbacks · 25th of 33
  • RBJ.K. Dobbins-0.19 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 81 carries · 33rd in EPA

Chargers

  • QBJustin Herbert-0.21 EPA a dropback · CPOE -6.0 · 187 dropbacks · 31st of 33
  • RBOmarion Hampton-0.33 EPA a carry · 3.5 yds · 76 carries · 40th in EPA

Recent Form

Broncos

  • L14-24at 49ers−6
  • W30-26vs Rams+5
  • W20-13vs Jaguars+8
  • L10-31at Chiefs—

Chargers

  • L23-30at Seahawks+4
  • L16-24at Bills+1
  • L14-26vs Raiders−18
  • L14-26vs Cardinals—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.