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Bears at Packers

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Bears3-1 going in
7–31Final
Packers2-2 going in

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI

The Call How this works

GordStats had Bears by 2.3✗, the book by 1.5 — 0.8 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

CHI 57%win chanceGB 43%
GordStatsCHI by 2.357% to win · CHI 24–GB 22
BookCHI -1.5O/U 46.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Packers' takeaway defense (1st) meets Bears' ball security (25th).
  • Bears' third-down defense (2nd) meets Packers' third-down offense (24th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bears Offense vs Packers Defense

CHI offGB def
EPA per play
10th+0.0718th+0.00
Pass EPA
12th+0.166th-0.04
Run EPA
17th-0.1028th-0.03
Success rate
6th48%23rd44%
Explosive plays
9th9%3rd5%
Points per drive
13th2.2111th1.92
Red zone TD
23rd50%25th68%
Third downs
6th46%24th44%
Sacks
20th6%17th6%
Turnovers
25th16%1st17%

Bears: 32.0 sec a snap (18th fastest) · passes 4% less than expected

Packers Offense vs Bears Defense

GB offCHI def
EPA per play
15th+0.004th-0.08
Pass EPA
14th+0.132nd-0.15
Run EPA
31st-0.3030th-0.02
Success rate
23rd40%5th40%
Explosive plays
15th8%21st9%
Points per drive
20th1.9810th1.92
Red zone TD
24th50%22nd67%
Third downs
24th36%2nd26%
Sacks
15th5%2nd9%
Turnovers
20th11%22nd10%

Packers: 32.6 sec a snap (21st fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bears

  • QBCaleb Williams+0.32 EPA a dropback · CPOE +8.4 · 102 dropbacks · 4th of 33
  • RBD'Andre Swift-0.13 EPA a carry · 3.9 yds · 83 carries · 29th in EPA
  • WRRome Odunze+0.63 EPA a target · 65% caught · 26 targets · 16th in EPA
  • WRKalif Raymond+0.60 EPA a target · 92% caught · 26 targets · 18th in EPA

Packers

  • QBJordan Love+0.10 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.9 · 196 dropbacks · 16th of 33
  • WRChristian Watson+0.42 EPA a target · 55% caught · 42 targets · 39th in EPA

Recent Form

Bears

  • W23-12vs Jets+1
  • W27-7vs Eagles+19
  • L3-9vs Vikings−8
  • W59-37at Panthers—

Packers

  • W17-14at Buccaneers+4
  • L14-35vs Falcons−28
  • W20-17at Jets−1
  • L22-39at Vikings—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.