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Ravens at Falcons

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Ravens3-1 going in
30–23Final/OT
Falcons2-2 going in

Sun, Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET · NBC

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Falcons by 2.3✗, the book by 3.5 — 1.2 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 48 to the book's 44.5: a lean to the Over✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

BAL 43%win chanceATL 57%
GordStatsATL by 2.357% to win · BAL 23–ATL 25
BookATL -3.5O/U 44.5
Assumed outLamar JacksonRavens quarterback

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Ravens' ball security (6th) meets Falcons' takeaway defense (29th).
  • Ravens' pass defense (10th) meets Falcons' passing game (32nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Ravens Offense vs Falcons Defense

BAL offATL def
EPA per play
9th+0.079th-0.05
Pass EPA
11th+0.1612th+0.02
Run EPA
10th-0.0411th-0.13
Success rate
12th46%8th41%
Explosive plays
4th10%13th8%
Points per drive
10th2.3615th2.04
Red zone TD
6th71%21st64%
Third downs
17th39%23rd44%
Sacks
22nd7%20th6%
Turnovers
6th6%29th7%

Ravens: 35.5 sec a snap (32nd fastest) · passes 7% less than expected

Falcons Offense vs Ravens Defense

ATL offBAL def
EPA per play
28th-0.1316th-0.01
Pass EPA
32nd-0.2510th-0.01
Run EPA
5th+0.0119th-0.08
Success rate
17th43%6th41%
Explosive plays
8th9%9th7%
Points per drive
18th2.0513th1.98
Red zone TD
4th75%14th57%
Third downs
18th39%14th40%
Sacks
26th8%16th6%
Turnovers
23rd15%25th10%

Falcons: 35.0 sec a snap (31st fastest) · passes 9% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Ravens

  • RBDerrick Henry-0.12 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 111 carries · 26th in EPA
  • WRZay Flowers+0.63 EPA a target · 76% caught · 42 targets · 13th in EPA
  • WRRashod Bateman+0.63 EPA a target · 71% caught · 21 targets · 14th in EPA

Falcons

  • QBMichael Penix Jr.-0.04 EPA a dropback · CPOE -5.2 · 99 dropbacks · 23rd of 33
  • RBBijan Robinson+0.06 EPA a carry · 6.0 yds · 100 carries · 8th in EPA
  • WRDrake London+0.55 EPA a target · 71% caught · 38 targets · 20th in EPA

Recent Form

Ravens

  • W24-18vs Titans−5
  • W34-31vs Cowboys−1
  • L17-24vs Saints−15
  • W41-23at Colts—

Falcons

  • W45-24at Saints+24
  • W35-14at Packers+28
  • L3-34vs Panthers−36
  • L13-20at Steelers—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.