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Texans vs Jaguars

Week 6 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 26 · 11:39 AM ET

Texans1-4 going in
34–31Final
Jaguars4-1 going in

Sun, Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET · NFL Net

Neutral site · Wembley Stadium · London, England

The Call How this works

GordStats had Jaguars by 3.4✗, the book by 2.5 — 0.9 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

HOU 40%win chanceJAX 60%
GordStatsJAX by 3.460% to win · HOU 20–JAX 23
BookJAX -2.5O/U 42.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Jaguars' big-play offense (4th) meets Texans' big-play defense (32nd).
  • Jaguars' run defense (3rd) meets Texans' run game (25th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense

HOU offJAX def
EPA per play
12th+0.055th-0.06
Pass EPA
8th+0.189th+0.02
Run EPA
25th-0.163rd-0.20
Success rate
14th45%9th42%
Explosive plays
16th8%5th6%
Points per drive
12th2.265th1.79
Red zone TD
16th58%4th40%
Third downs
25th38%9th37%
Sacks
15th6%24th5%
Turnovers
2nd4%5th16%

Texans: 31.5 sec a snap (11th fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense

JAX offHOU def
EPA per play
5th+0.1224th+0.06
Pass EPA
5th+0.2226th+0.15
Run EPA
9th-0.0330th-0.03
Success rate
9th47%10th42%
Explosive plays
4th10%32nd10%
Points per drive
6th2.7022nd2.33
Red zone TD
9th67%25th68%
Third downs
4th49%17th41%
Sacks
12th5%4th8%
Turnovers
8th7%28th8%

Jaguars: 32.0 sec a snap (19th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Texans

  • QBC.J. Stroud+0.19 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.2 · 242 dropbacks · 9th of 34
  • RBWoody Marks-0.17 EPA a carry · 3.5 yds · 73 carries · 30th in EPA
  • WRNico Collins+0.57 EPA a target · 69% caught · 35 targets · 20th in EPA
  • WRJaylin Noel+0.64 EPA a target · 81% caught · 21 targets · 10th in EPA

Jaguars

  • QBTrevor Lawrence+0.26 EPA a dropback · CPOE +3.2 · 200 dropbacks · 6th of 34
  • RBBhayshul Tuten-0.04 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 84 carries · 18th in EPA
  • WRParker Washington+0.44 EPA a target · 57% caught · 46 targets · 33rd in EPA
  • WRJakobi Meyers+0.53 EPA a target · 70% caught · 27 targets · 23rd in EPA

Recent Form

Texans

  • W26–3at Titans+17
  • L30–34vs Cowboys−9
  • L17–19at Colts−3
  • L6–20vs Bengals−20

Jaguars

  • W19–17vs Eagles−3
  • W22–17at Bengals+1
  • W35–6vs Patriots+28
  • L13–20at Broncos−8

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.