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Ravens at Browns

Week 6 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 26 · 11:39 AM ET

Ravens4-1 going in
10–13Final
Browns3-2 going in

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH

The Call How this works

GordStats had Ravens by 0.7✗, the book by 3 — 2.3 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 45 to the book's 39.5: a lean to the Over✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

BAL 52%win chanceCLE 48%
GordStatsBAL by 0.752% to win · BAL 23–CLE 22
BookBAL -3O/U 39.5
Assumed outLamar JacksonRavens quarterback

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Ravens' big-play offense (7th) meets Browns' big-play defense (29th).
  • Ravens' pass rush (16th) meets Browns' pass protection (32nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense

BAL offCLE def
EPA per play
9th+0.0810th-0.03
Pass EPA
9th+0.186th+0.01
Run EPA
13th-0.0715th-0.10
Success rate
11th45%7th42%
Explosive plays
7th9%29th10%
Points per drive
13th2.228th1.92
Red zone TD
13th62%8th47%
Third downs
10th43%14th39%
Sacks
24th8%6th8%
Turnovers
6th7%13th12%

Ravens: 35.1 sec a snap (32nd fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense

CLE offBAL def
EPA per play
23rd-0.0520th+0.03
Pass EPA
23rd+0.0117th+0.07
Run EPA
23rd-0.1621st-0.07
Success rate
20th42%15th43%
Explosive plays
21st7%12th7%
Points per drive
28th1.7720th2.19
Red zone TD
24th50%20th65%
Third downs
30th33%19th41%
Sacks
32nd10%16th6%
Turnovers
16th11%27th8%

Browns: 30.9 sec a snap (8th fastest) · passes 4% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Ravens

  • QBTyler Huntley+0.14 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.5 · 118 dropbacks · 12th of 34
  • RBDerrick Henry-0.15 EPA a carry · 3.9 yds · 128 carries · 28th in EPA
  • WRZay Flowers+0.75 EPA a target · 76% caught · 51 targets · 5th in EPA
  • WRRashod Bateman+0.63 EPA a target · 68% caught · 25 targets · 12th in EPA

Browns

  • QBDeshaun Watson+0.02 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.7 · 250 dropbacks · 21st of 34
  • RBQuinshon Judkins-0.17 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 81 carries · 29th in EPA

Recent Form

Ravens

  • W30–23at Falcons+9
  • W24–18vs Titans−5
  • W34–31vs Cowboys−1
  • L17–24vs Saints−15

Browns

  • L12–17at Jets−5
  • W27–24vs Steelers+4
  • W21–18vs Panthers+4
  • W23–19at Buccaneers+10

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.