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Bears at Falcons

Week 6 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 26 · 11:39 AM ET

Bears3-2 going in
31–23Final
Falcons2-3 going in

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Bears by 1.4✓, the book by 1.5 — they agree, no lean.

On the total, GordStats said 46 to the book's 51.5: a lean to the Under✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

CHI 54%win chanceATL 46%
GordStatsCHI by 1.454% to win · CHI 24–ATL 22
BookCHI -1.5O/U 51.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bears' pass defense (5th) meets Falcons' passing game (29th).
  • Bears' third-down offense (7th) meets Falcons' third-down defense (22nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bears Offense vs Falcons Defense

CHI offATL def
EPA per play
7th+0.096th-0.06
Pass EPA
7th+0.207th+0.02
Run EPA
16th-0.1013th-0.11
Success rate
7th48%13th43%
Explosive plays
5th10%15th8%
Points per drive
10th2.3414th2.06
Red zone TD
20th53%22nd67%
Third downs
7th44%22nd43%
Sacks
19th6%21st6%
Turnovers
23rd14%14th12%

Bears: 31.5 sec a snap (15th fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

Falcons Offense vs Bears Defense

ATL offCHI def
EPA per play
28th-0.087th-0.05
Pass EPA
29th-0.145th-0.06
Run EPA
7th-0.0220th-0.07
Success rate
15th44%5th41%
Explosive plays
13th8%16th9%
Points per drive
14th2.1911th1.99
Red zone TD
7th67%19th65%
Third downs
20th39%1st26%
Sacks
22nd7%3rd8%
Turnovers
22nd13%18th10%

Falcons: 34.7 sec a snap (31st fastest) · passes 7% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bears

  • QBCaleb Williams+0.35 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.9 · 139 dropbacks · 2nd of 34
  • RBD'Andre Swift-0.11 EPA a carry · 3.8 yds · 103 carries · 26th in EPA
  • WRRome Odunze+0.73 EPA a target · 68% caught · 31 targets · 8th in EPA
  • WRKalif Raymond+0.48 EPA a target · 86% caught · 28 targets · 30th in EPA

Falcons

  • QBMichael Penix Jr.+0.04 EPA a dropback · CPOE -2.3 · 133 dropbacks · 20th of 34
  • RBBijan Robinson+0.01 EPA a carry · 5.6 yds · 119 carries · 13th in EPA
  • WRDrake London+0.58 EPA a target · 71% caught · 48 targets · 17th in EPA

Recent Form

Bears

  • L7–31at Packers−26
  • W23–12vs Jets+1
  • W27–7vs Eagles+19
  • L3–9vs Vikings−8

Falcons

  • L23–30vs Ravens−9
  • W45–24at Saints+24
  • W35–14at Packers+28
  • L3–34vs Panthers−36

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.