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Steelers at Buccaneers

Week 6 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 26 · 11:39 AM ET

Steelers3-2 going in
26–19Final/OT
Buccaneers1-4 going in

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Steelers by 3.4✓, the book by 1.5 — 1.9 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 44 to the book's 38.5: a lean to the Over✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

PIT 60%win chanceTB 40%
GordStatsPIT by 3.460% to win · PIT 24–TB 20
BookPIT -1.5O/U 38.5
Assumed outBaker MayfieldBuccaneers quarterback

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Buccaneers' pass defense (2nd) meets Steelers' passing game (27th).
  • Steelers' pass defense (12th) meets Buccaneers' passing game (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Steelers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense

PIT offTB def
EPA per play
17th+0.003rd-0.14
Pass EPA
27th-0.052nd-0.12
Run EPA
2nd+0.078th-0.16
Success rate
18th42%6th41%
Explosive plays
18th8%4th6%
Points per drive
22nd1.907th1.88
Red zone TD
28th47%11th53%
Third downs
21st38%10th37%
Sacks
25th8%17th6%
Turnovers
14th9%8th14%

Steelers: 33.4 sec a snap (26th fastest) · passes 6% more than expected

Buccaneers Offense vs Steelers Defense

TB offPIT def
EPA per play
29th-0.0915th+0.00
Pass EPA
30th-0.1512th+0.03
Run EPA
6th-0.0111th-0.12
Success rate
25th40%12th43%
Explosive plays
24th7%23rd9%
Points per drive
23rd1.906th1.79
Red zone TD
19th55%7th46%
Third downs
17th39%7th35%
Sacks
28th9%13th7%
Turnovers
25th14%7th14%

Buccaneers: 33.2 sec a snap (25th fastest) · passes 9% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Steelers

  • QBAaron Rodgers-0.07 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.1 · 272 dropbacks · 29th of 34
  • RBJaylen Warren+0.11 EPA a carry · 5.5 yds · 93 carries · 2nd in EPA

Buccaneers

  • QBJalon Daniels-0.12 EPA a dropback · CPOE -6.2 · 115 dropbacks · 30th of 34
  • RBBucky Irving+0.04 EPA a carry · 4.6 yds · 114 carries · 9th in EPA

Recent Form

Steelers

  • W34–22vs Colts+12
  • L24–27at Browns−4
  • W30–27vs Bengals+3
  • L3–20at Patriots−11

Buccaneers

  • W24–16at Cowboys+15
  • L14–17vs Packers−4
  • L16–23vs Vikings−5
  • L19–23vs Browns−10

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.