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Titans at Colts

Week 6 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 26 · 11:39 AM ET

Titans0-5 going in
26–20Final
Colts2-3 going in

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Colts by 8.6✗, the book by 6.5 — 2.1 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

TEN 26%win chanceIND 74%
GordStatsIND by 8.674% to win · TEN 19–IND 27
BookIND -6.5O/U 43.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Colts' run game (3rd) meets Titans' run defense (27th).
  • Colts' third-down defense (4th) meets Titans' third-down offense (28th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Titans Offense vs Colts Defense

TEN offIND def
EPA per play
31st-0.1422nd+0.04
Pass EPA
31st-0.1518th+0.07
Run EPA
19th-0.1229th-0.04
Success rate
27th39%8th42%
Explosive plays
27th7%19th9%
Points per drive
31st1.5323rd2.37
Red zone TD
29th47%16th60%
Third downs
28th35%4th30%
Sacks
8th5%22nd5%
Turnovers
20th12%32nd4%

Titans: 29.9 sec a snap (2nd fastest) · passes 11% less than expected

Colts Offense vs Titans Defense

IND offTEN def
EPA per play
25th-0.0525th+0.08
Pass EPA
28th-0.1225th+0.13
Run EPA
3rd+0.0427th-0.05
Success rate
21st42%24th45%
Explosive plays
14th8%24th9%
Points per drive
19th2.0521st2.23
Red zone TD
15th60%17th60%
Third downs
14th40%18th41%
Sacks
23rd7%12th7%
Turnovers
28th16%17th10%

Colts: 32.6 sec a snap (22nd fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Titans

  • QBCam Ward-0.15 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.7 · 186 dropbacks · 32nd of 34
  • RBTony Pollard-0.06 EPA a carry · 4.4 yds · 106 carries · 21st in EPA

Colts

  • QBDaniel Jones-0.13 EPA a dropback · CPOE -4.3 · 247 dropbacks · 31st of 34
  • RBJonathan Taylor+0.00 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 139 carries · 15th in EPA

Recent Form

Titans

  • L3–26vs Texans−17
  • L18–24at Ravens+5
  • L7–12at Giants0
  • L20–24vs Eagles+3

Colts

  • L22–34at Steelers−12
  • W30–13vs Commanders+15
  • W19–17vs Texans+3
  • L30–33at Chiefs+2

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.