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Chargers at Chiefs

Week 6 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 26 · 11:39 AM ET

Chargers0-5 going in
6–22Final
Chiefs4-0 going in

Sun, Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET · CBS

Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO

The Call How this works

GordStats had Chiefs by 6.4✓, the book by 7 — 0.6 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

LAC 31%win chanceKC 69%
GordStatsKC by 6.469% to win · LAC 18–KC 24
BookKC -7O/U 41.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Chiefs' scoring defense (3rd) meets Chargers' scoring offense (32nd).
  • Chiefs' run game (1st) meets Chargers' run defense (24th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense

LAC offKC def
EPA per play
32nd-0.2417th+0.01
Pass EPA
32nd-0.1915th+0.06
Run EPA
30th-0.286th-0.18
Success rate
32nd37%4th40%
Explosive plays
29th6%10th7%
Points per drive
32nd1.273rd1.72
Red zone TD
25th50%2nd31%
Third downs
29th34%20th42%
Sacks
31st10%30th3%
Turnovers
32nd20%6th15%

Chargers: 31.5 sec a snap (12th fastest) · passes 12% less than expected

Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense

KC offLAC def
EPA per play
4th+0.129th-0.03
Pass EPA
13th+0.1411th+0.03
Run EPA
1st+0.1024th-0.06
Success rate
8th47%21st44%
Explosive plays
6th10%25th9%
Points per drive
8th2.3419th2.16
Red zone TD
17th57%10th50%
Third downs
15th40%6th32%
Sacks
3rd3%19th6%
Turnovers
5th7%9th13%

Chiefs: 31.5 sec a snap (13th fastest) · passes 4% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Chargers

  • QBJustin Herbert-0.21 EPA a dropback · CPOE -6.0 · 187 dropbacks · 34th of 34
  • RBOmarion Hampton-0.33 EPA a carry · 3.5 yds · 76 carries · 39th in EPA

Chiefs

  • QBPatrick Mahomes+0.14 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.5 · 191 dropbacks · 11th of 34
  • RBKenneth Walker III+0.09 EPA a carry · 5.8 yds · 113 carries · 3rd in EPA
  • TETravis Kelce+0.72 EPA a target · 69% caught · 29 targets · 9th in EPA

Recent Form

Chargers

  • L17–23vs Broncos−4
  • L23–30at Seahawks+4
  • L16–24at Bills+1
  • L14–26vs Raiders−18

Chiefs

  • W30–27at Raiders−1
  • W24–10at Dolphins+9
  • W33–30vs Colts−2
  • W31–10vs Broncos—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.