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Cowboys at Packers

Week 6 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 26 · 11:39 AM ET

Cowboys2-3 going in
13–23Final
Packers3-2 going in

Sun, Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET · NBC

Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI

The Call How this works

GordStats had Packers by 3.6✓, the book had Cowboys by 1.5: a lean to Packers +1.5✓.

On the total, GordStats said 50 to the book's 53.5: a lean to the Under✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

DAL 39%win chanceGB 61%
GordStatsGB by 3.661% to win · DAL 23–GB 27
BookDAL -1.5O/U 53.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Packers' big-play defense (3rd) meets Cowboys' big-play offense (30th).
  • Packers' big-play offense (10th) meets Cowboys' big-play defense (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense

DAL offGB def
EPA per play
8th+0.0911th-0.03
Pass EPA
12th+0.148th+0.02
Run EPA
10th-0.0414th-0.10
Success rate
6th48%25th46%
Explosive plays
30th5%3rd6%
Points per drive
4th2.759th1.93
Red zone TD
3rd74%18th61%
Third downs
5th47%25th45%
Sacks
1st3%18th6%
Turnovers
18th11%1st17%

Cowboys: 30.4 sec a snap (4th fastest) · passes 2% more than expected

Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense

GB offDAL def
EPA per play
16th+0.0031st+0.18
Pass EPA
14th+0.1331st+0.31
Run EPA
31st-0.2928th-0.04
Success rate
26th39%28th48%
Explosive plays
10th9%30th10%
Points per drive
21st1.9529th2.69
Red zone TD
31st46%24th68%
Third downs
27th36%32nd56%
Sacks
9th5%28th4%
Turnovers
17th11%30th5%

Packers: 31.6 sec a snap (16th fastest) · passes 2% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Cowboys

  • QBDak Prescott+0.12 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.7 · 221 dropbacks · 15th of 34
  • RBJavonte Williams+0.03 EPA a carry · 3.7 yds · 79 carries · 10th in EPA
  • WRCeeDee Lamb+0.43 EPA a target · 74% caught · 57 targets · 34th in EPA
  • WRGeorge Pickens+0.37 EPA a target · 64% caught · 42 targets · 40th in EPA

Packers

  • QBJordan Love+0.11 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.3 · 242 dropbacks · 16th of 34
  • WRChristian Watson+0.45 EPA a target · 56% caught · 50 targets · 32nd in EPA
  • TETucker Kraft+0.39 EPA a target · 69% caught · 39 targets · 38th in EPA

Recent Form

Cowboys

  • L16–24vs Buccaneers−15
  • W34–30at Texans+9
  • L31–34vs Ravens+1
  • W37–20vs Commanders+15

Packers

  • W31–7vs Bears+26
  • W17–14at Buccaneers+4
  • L14–35vs Falcons−28
  • W20–17at Jets−1

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.