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Commanders at 49ers

Week 6 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 26 · 11:39 AM ET

Commanders1-3-1 going in
17–23Final
49ers5-0 going in

Mon, Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET · ESPN, ABC

Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA

The Call How this works

GordStats had 49ers by 9.7✓, the book by 7.5 — 2.2 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

WSH 23%win chanceSF 77%
GordStatsSF by 9.777% to win · WSH 20–SF 30
BookSF -7.5O/U 52.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • 49ers' red-zone offense (1st) meets Commanders' red-zone defense (32nd).
  • Commanders' ball security (1st) meets 49ers' takeaway defense (26th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense

WSH offSF def
EPA per play
21st-0.0214th-0.01
Pass EPA
20th+0.0516th+0.06
Run EPA
21st-0.135th-0.19
Success rate
24th40%20th44%
Explosive plays
25th7%2nd4%
Points per drive
24th1.8813th2.01
Red zone TD
21st53%9th48%
Third downs
32nd31%11th38%
Sacks
16th6%20th6%
Turnovers
1st3%26th9%

Commanders: 30.7 sec a snap (5th fastest) · passes 2% less than expected

49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense

SF offWSH def
EPA per play
2nd+0.1923rd+0.06
Pass EPA
2nd+0.2921st+0.12
Run EPA
5th+0.0319th-0.07
Success rate
1st54%27th47%
Explosive plays
2nd11%6th7%
Points per drive
3rd2.8826th2.61
Red zone TD
1st87%32nd82%
Third downs
2nd50%26th45%
Sacks
2nd3%25th4%
Turnovers
19th12%12th12%

49ers: 33.9 sec a snap (28th fastest) · passes 3% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Commanders

  • QBJayden Daniels+0.12 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.0 · 142 dropbacks · 14th of 34
  • RBJacory Croskey-Merritt-0.10 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 67 carries · 24th in EPA
  • WRTerry McLaurin+0.58 EPA a target · 60% caught · 25 targets · 18th in EPA

49ers

  • QBBrock Purdy+0.33 EPA a dropback · CPOE +4.4 · 217 dropbacks · 3rd of 34
  • RBChristian McCaffrey+0.17 EPA a carry · 4.7 yds · 78 carries · 1st in EPA
  • WRMike Evans+1.02 EPA a target · 69% caught · 39 targets · 2nd in EPA

Recent Form

Commanders

  • T27–27vs Giants−4
  • L13–30vs Colts−15
  • W33–31vs Seahawks+12
  • L20–37at Cowboys−15

49ers

  • W32–29at Seahawks+7
  • W24–14vs Broncos+6
  • W36–30vs Cardinals−3
  • W35–13vs Dolphins+13

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.