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Steelers vs Saints

Week 7 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Steelers4-2 going in
16–10Final
Saints2-4 going in

Sun, Oct 25 · 9:30 AM ET · NFL Net

Neutral site · Stade de France · Saint-Denis, France

The Call How this works

GordStats had Steelers by 3.3✓, the book by 3 — they agree, no lean.

PIT 60%win chanceNO 40%
GordStatsPIT by 3.360% to win · PIT 25–NO 21
BookPIT -3O/U 43.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Steelers' run game (1st) meets Saints' run defense (29th).
  • Steelers' takeaway defense (7th) meets Saints' ball security (29th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Steelers Offense vs Saints Defense

PIT offNO def
EPA per play
15th+0.0228th+0.09
Pass EPA
27th-0.0522nd+0.13
Run EPA
1st+0.1529th+0.00
Success rate
16th44%31st49%
Explosive plays
8th9%18th9%
Points per drive
21st1.9728th2.62
Red zone TD
28th50%13th57%
Third downs
22nd38%30th50%
Sacks
21st7%11th7%
Turnovers
13th9%23rd9%

Steelers: 33.5 sec a snap (25th fastest) · passes 5% more than expected

Saints Offense vs Steelers Defense

NO offPIT def
EPA per play
21st-0.0112th-0.02
Pass EPA
18th+0.0611th+0.01
Run EPA
25th-0.1611th-0.14
Success rate
19th42%14th43%
Explosive plays
28th7%15th9%
Points per drive
13th2.175th1.63
Red zone TD
2nd75%2nd38%
Third downs
8th43%8th34%
Sacks
10th5%4th8%
Turnovers
29th17%7th14%

Saints: 30.3 sec a snap (3rd fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Steelers

  • QBAaron Rodgers-0.07 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.5 · 294 dropbacks · 28th of 32
  • RBJaylen Warren+0.15 EPA a carry · 6.0 yds · 108 carries · 2nd in EPA

Saints

  • QBTyler Shough+0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.4 · 269 dropbacks · 17th of 32
  • RBKendre Miller-0.28 EPA a carry · 2.9 yds · 47 carries · 37th in EPA
  • WRChris Olave+0.55 EPA a target · 71% caught · 62 targets · 20th in EPA
  • WRDevaughn Vele+0.50 EPA a target · 69% caught · 42 targets · 25th in EPA

Recent Form

Steelers

  • W26–19at Buccaneers+4
  • W34–22vs Colts+12
  • L24–27at Browns−4
  • W30–27vs Bengals+3

Saints

  • W34–27at Giants+6
  • L13–23vs Vikings−5
  • L24–45vs Falcons−24
  • L27–35vs Raiders−12

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.