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Bengals at Ravens

Week 7 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Bengals3-2 going in
35–13Final
Ravens4-2 going in

Sun, Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD

The Call How this works

GordStats had Bengals by 1.1✓, the book by 3 — 1.9 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 50 to the book's 46.5: a lean to the Over✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

CIN 53%win chanceBAL 47%
GordStatsCIN by 1.153% to win · CIN 26–BAL 24
BookCIN -3O/U 46.5
Assumed outLamar JacksonRavens quarterback

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bengals' pass rush (3rd) meets Ravens' pass protection (26th).
  • Bengals' red-zone offense (6th) meets Ravens' red-zone defense (24th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense

CIN offBAL def
EPA per play
2nd+0.1614th+0.00
Pass EPA
3rd+0.2613th+0.04
Run EPA
16th-0.0920th-0.07
Success rate
2nd52%16th44%
Explosive plays
12th8%8th7%
Points per drive
5th2.7718th2.28
Red zone TD
6th68%24th67%
Third downs
1st53%15th40%
Sacks
8th4%19th6%
Turnovers
20th13%24th9%

Bengals: 32.2 sec a snap (18th fastest) · passes 11% more than expected

Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense

BAL offCIN def
EPA per play
13th+0.0317th+0.03
Pass EPA
17th+0.1015th+0.06
Run EPA
11th-0.0522nd-0.06
Success rate
15th44%21st45%
Explosive plays
9th9%23rd9%
Points per drive
18th2.0316th2.10
Red zone TD
14th59%4th42%
Third downs
14th40%29th47%
Sacks
26th8%3rd8%
Turnovers
12th9%4th15%

Ravens: 34.9 sec a snap (32nd fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bengals

  • QBJoe Burrow+0.28 EPA a dropback · CPOE +10.0 · 274 dropbacks · 4th of 32
  • RBChase Brown-0.13 EPA a carry · 3.8 yds · 81 carries · 27th in EPA
  • WRJa'Marr Chase+0.50 EPA a target · 71% caught · 59 targets · 24th in EPA
  • WRTee Higgins+0.90 EPA a target · 71% caught · 58 targets · 2nd in EPA

Ravens

  • QBTyler Huntley+0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.8 · 123 dropbacks · 16th of 32
  • RBDerrick Henry-0.14 EPA a carry · 4.0 yds · 138 carries · 28th in EPA
  • WRZay Flowers+0.56 EPA a target · 70% caught · 56 targets · 19th in EPA
  • WRRashod Bateman+0.68 EPA a target · 67% caught · 27 targets · 8th in EPA

Recent Form

Bengals

  • W31–24at Dolphins+4
  • L17–22vs Jaguars−1
  • L27–30at Steelers−3
  • W20–6at Texans+20

Ravens

  • L10–13at Browns−4
  • W30–23at Falcons+9
  • W24–18vs Titans−5
  • W34–31vs Cowboys−1

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.