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Colts at Vikings

Week 7 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Colts2-4 going in
10–16Final
Vikings5-0 going in

Sun, Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Vikings by 5.5✓, the book by 6.5 — 1 point apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 45 to the book's 41.5: a lean to the Over✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

IND 34%win chanceMIN 66%
GordStatsMIN by 5.566% to win · IND 20–MIN 25
BookMIN -6.5O/U 41.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Vikings' pass defense (1st) meets Colts' passing game (29th).
  • Vikings' ball security (6th) meets Colts' takeaway defense (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Colts Offense vs Vikings Defense

IND offMIN def
EPA per play
27th-0.091st-0.19
Pass EPA
29th-0.161st-0.20
Run EPA
6th+0.019th-0.16
Success rate
21st42%1st36%
Explosive plays
18th8%14th8%
Points per drive
25th1.831st1.18
Red zone TD
15th59%1st25%
Third downs
17th39%3rd30%
Sacks
24th8%1st11%
Turnovers
30th17%6th15%

Colts: 32.4 sec a snap (21st fastest) · passes 0% less than expected

Vikings Offense vs Colts Defense

MIN offIND def
EPA per play
30th-0.1022nd+0.06
Pass EPA
26th-0.0420th+0.10
Run EPA
28th-0.1931st+0.01
Success rate
31st38%12th43%
Explosive plays
17th8%26th9%
Points per drive
26th1.8226th2.45
Red zone TD
22nd53%16th62%
Third downs
25th38%7th33%
Sacks
30th9%17th6%
Turnovers
6th7%31st5%

Vikings: 32.9 sec a snap (23rd fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Colts

  • QBDaniel Jones-0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.9 · 275 dropbacks · 30th of 32
  • RBJonathan Taylor-0.05 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 147 carries · 19th in EPA

Vikings

  • QBKyler Murray+0.00 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.6 · 182 dropbacks · 21st of 32
  • RBAaron Jones-0.18 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 102 carries · 31st in EPA
  • WRJustin Jefferson+0.46 EPA a target · 69% caught · 39 targets · 29th in EPA
  • TET.J. Hockenson+0.67 EPA a target · 84% caught · 37 targets · 9th in EPA

Recent Form

Colts

  • L20–26vs Titans−15
  • L22–34at Steelers−12
  • W30–13vs Commanders+15
  • W19–17vs Texans+3

Vikings

  • W23–13at Saints+5
  • W15–10vs Dolphins−5
  • W23–16at Buccaneers+5
  • W9–3at Bears+8

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.