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Dolphins at Jets

Week 7 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Dolphins0-5 going in
28–25Final
Jets2-4 going in

Sun, Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ

The Call How this works

GordStats had Jets by 1.7✗, the book by 3.5 — 1.8 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

MIA 45%win chanceNYJ 55%
GordStatsNYJ by 1.755% to win · MIA 20–NYJ 22
BookNYJ -3.5O/U 39.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Jets' pass rush (10th) meets Dolphins' pass protection (31st).
  • Jets' big-play offense (6th) meets Dolphins' big-play defense (27th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense

MIA offNYJ def
EPA per play
26th-0.0719th+0.04
Pass EPA
25th-0.0127th+0.19
Run EPA
22nd-0.138th-0.16
Success rate
29th39%24th46%
Explosive plays
23rd7%12th8%
Points per drive
28th1.7719th2.32
Red zone TD
18th56%17th62%
Third downs
10th43%19th41%
Sacks
31st9%10th7%
Turnovers
23rd14%26th9%

Dolphins: 33.5 sec a snap (26th fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense

NYJ offMIA def
EPA per play
16th+0.0132nd+0.18
Pass EPA
15th+0.1032nd+0.34
Run EPA
17th-0.1030th+0.01
Success rate
11th45%32nd53%
Explosive plays
6th10%27th10%
Points per drive
15th2.1232nd2.78
Red zone TD
31st44%19th64%
Third downs
23rd38%32nd52%
Sacks
27th8%28th4%
Turnovers
9th8%25th9%

Jets: 33.7 sec a snap (27th fastest) · passes 2% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Dolphins

  • QBMalik Willis-0.03 EPA a dropback · CPOE -7.2 · 183 dropbacks · 24th of 32
  • RBOllie Gordon II-0.03 EPA a carry · 4.4 yds · 83 carries · 15th in EPA
  • TEGreg Dulcich+0.43 EPA a target · 73% caught · 22 targets · 32nd in EPA

Jets

  • QBGeno Smith+0.10 EPA a dropback · CPOE +6.0 · 259 dropbacks · 15th of 32
  • RBBraelon Allen+0.03 EPA a carry · 5.1 yds · 108 carries · 8th in EPA
  • WRGarrett Wilson+0.42 EPA a target · 69% caught · 61 targets · 34th in EPA
  • WRAdonai Mitchell+0.76 EPA a target · 62% caught · 26 targets · 4th in EPA

Recent Form

Dolphins

  • L24–31vs Bengals−4
  • L10–15at Vikings+5
  • L10–24vs Chiefs−9
  • L13–35at 49ers−13

Jets

  • L19–26at Patriots+3
  • W17–12vs Browns+5
  • L12–23at Bears−1
  • L24–31at Lions+2

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.