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49ers at Falcons

Week 7 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

49ers6-0 going in
20–29Final
Falcons2-4 going in

Sun, Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had 49ers by 4.4✗, the book by 2.5 — 1.9 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

SF 63%win chanceATL 37%
GordStatsSF by 4.463% to win · SF 26–ATL 22
BookSF -2.5O/U 49.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • 49ers' big-play offense (2nd) meets Falcons' big-play defense (21st).
  • 49ers' third-down defense (10th) meets Falcons' third-down offense (29th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense

SF offATL def
EPA per play
1st+0.197th-0.06
Pass EPA
1st+0.298th-0.01
Run EPA
3rd+0.0314th-0.09
Success rate
1st54%11th42%
Explosive plays
2nd11%21st9%
Points per drive
2nd2.8810th1.97
Red zone TD
1st87%18th63%
Third downs
2nd50%20th42%
Sacks
1st3%18th6%
Turnovers
18th12%15th11%

49ers: 33.9 sec a snap (29th fastest) · passes 3% more than expected

Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense

ATL offSF def
EPA per play
31st-0.1213th-0.01
Pass EPA
31st-0.2116th+0.06
Run EPA
10th-0.044th-0.19
Success rate
17th43%19th44%
Explosive plays
19th8%2nd4%
Points per drive
24th1.8914th2.01
Red zone TD
13th64%8th48%
Third downs
29th34%10th38%
Sacks
18th6%20th6%
Turnovers
27th16%27th9%

Falcons: 34.8 sec a snap (31st fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

49ers

  • QBBrock Purdy+0.33 EPA a dropback · CPOE +4.4 · 217 dropbacks · 2nd of 32
  • RBChristian McCaffrey+0.17 EPA a carry · 4.7 yds · 78 carries · 1st in EPA
  • WRMike Evans+1.02 EPA a target · 69% caught · 39 targets · 1st in EPA

Falcons

  • QBMichael Penix Jr.-0.09 EPA a dropback · CPOE -5.3 · 150 dropbacks · 29th of 32
  • RBBijan Robinson-0.05 EPA a carry · 5.3 yds · 138 carries · 18th in EPA

Recent Form

49ers

  • W23–17vs Commanders−4
  • W32–29at Seahawks+7
  • W24–14vs Broncos+6
  • W36–30vs Cardinals−3

Falcons

  • L23–31vs Bears−7
  • L23–30vs Ravens−9
  • W45–24at Saints+24
  • W35–14at Packers+28

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.