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Buccaneers at Panthers

Week 7 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Buccaneers1-5 going in
43–13Final
Panthers3-2 going in

Sun, Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC

The Call How this works

GordStats had Panthers by 2✗, the book by 3 — 1 point apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

TB 44%win chanceCAR 56%
GordStatsCAR by 256% to win · TB 22–CAR 24
BookCAR -3O/U 44.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Buccaneers' pass defense (2nd) meets Panthers' passing game (22nd).
  • Panthers' big-play defense (7th) meets Buccaneers' big-play offense (20th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense

TB offCAR def
EPA per play
29th-0.1024th+0.07
Pass EPA
30th-0.1721st+0.12
Run EPA
7th-0.0119th-0.07
Success rate
27th40%22nd45%
Explosive plays
20th8%7th7%
Points per drive
27th1.8224th2.39
Red zone TD
26th52%32nd80%
Third downs
21st38%28th46%
Sacks
28th9%29th4%
Turnovers
22nd13%17th10%

Buccaneers: 33.9 sec a snap (28th fastest) · passes 12% less than expected

Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense

CAR offTB def
EPA per play
19th-0.012nd-0.18
Pass EPA
22nd+0.012nd-0.17
Run EPA
13th-0.065th-0.17
Success rate
23rd41%3rd40%
Explosive plays
16th8%4th6%
Points per drive
12th2.194th1.61
Red zone TD
12th64%10th50%
Third downs
20th39%5th32%
Sacks
23rd8%24th5%
Turnovers
15th10%3rd16%

Panthers: 28.5 sec a snap (1st fastest) · passes 9% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Buccaneers

  • QBBaker Mayfield-0.23 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.3 · 133 dropbacks · 31st of 32
  • RBBucky Irving+0.01 EPA a carry · 5.0 yds · 140 carries · 11th in EPA

Panthers

  • QBBryce Young+0.03 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.3 · 268 dropbacks · 18th of 32
  • RBChuba Hubbard+0.04 EPA a carry · 4.5 yds · 106 carries · 7th in EPA
  • WRTetairoa McMillan+0.41 EPA a target · 66% caught · 56 targets · 35th in EPA
  • TEDarren Waller+0.38 EPA a target · 61% caught · 23 targets · 40th in EPA

Recent Form

Buccaneers

  • L19–26vs Steelers−4
  • W24–16at Cowboys+15
  • L14–17vs Packers−4
  • L16–23vs Vikings−5

Panthers

  • W25–14at Eagles+11
  • W32–26vs Lions+9
  • L18–21at Browns−4
  • W34–3at Falcons+36

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.