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Packers at Lions

Week 7 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Packers4-2 going in
17–20Final
Lions3-2 going in

Sun, Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET · Fox

Ford Field · Detroit, MI

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Lions by 3.2✓, the book by 3.5 — they agree, no lean.

On the total, GordStats said 51 to the book's 55.5: a lean to the Under✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

GB 40%win chanceDET 60%
GordStatsDET by 3.260% to win · GB 24–DET 27
BookDET -3.5O/U 55.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Packers' big-play offense (11th) meets Lions' big-play defense (29th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Packers Offense vs Lions Defense

GB offDET def
EPA per play
14th+0.0330th+0.13
Pass EPA
11th+0.1628th+0.22
Run EPA
30th-0.2612th-0.11
Success rate
25th41%27th46%
Explosive plays
11th8%29th10%
Points per drive
19th2.0127th2.47
Red zone TD
27th52%28th74%
Third downs
19th39%27th46%
Sacks
7th4%7th7%
Turnovers
17th12%21st10%

Packers: 31.7 sec a snap (13th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

Lions Offense vs Packers Defense

DET offGB def
EPA per play
7th+0.096th-0.06
Pass EPA
5th+0.225th-0.04
Run EPA
14th-0.0813th-0.11
Success rate
3rd50%17th44%
Explosive plays
3rd11%3rd5%
Points per drive
4th2.787th1.86
Red zone TD
11th65%14th60%
Third downs
16th39%21st42%
Sacks
17th6%12th7%
Turnovers
3rd5%1st17%

Lions: 31.4 sec a snap (9th fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Packers

  • QBJordan Love+0.16 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.8 · 278 dropbacks · 11th of 32
  • RBMarShawn Lloyd-0.37 EPA a carry · 2.6 yds · 53 carries · 40th in EPA
  • WRChristian Watson+0.41 EPA a target · 59% caught · 58 targets · 36th in EPA
  • TETucker Kraft+0.50 EPA a target · 73% caught · 44 targets · 26th in EPA

Lions

  • QBJared Goff+0.23 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.1 · 244 dropbacks · 7th of 32
  • RBJahmyr Gibbs-0.02 EPA a carry · 5.0 yds · 147 carries · 14th in EPA
  • WRJameson Williams+0.56 EPA a target · 62% caught · 42 targets · 18th in EPA
  • TESam LaPorta+0.64 EPA a target · 67% caught · 39 targets · 12th in EPA

Recent Form

Packers

  • W23–13vs Cowboys+6
  • W31–7vs Bears+26
  • W17–14at Buccaneers+4
  • L14–35vs Falcons−28

Lions

  • W45–21at Cardinals+20
  • L26–32at Panthers−9
  • W31–24vs Jets−2
  • L31–41at Bills−6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.