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Falcons at Buccaneers

Week 8 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Falcons3-4 going in
0–16Final
Buccaneers2-5 going in

Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Buccaneers by 2.5✓, the book by 1.5 — 1 point apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 47 to the book's 43.5: a lean to the Over✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

ATL 42%win chanceTB 58%
GordStatsTB by 2.558% to win · ATL 22–TB 25
BookTB -1.5O/U 43.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Buccaneers' defense (2nd) meets Falcons' offense (31st).
  • Falcons' defense (7th) meets Buccaneers' offense (29th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense

ATL offTB def
EPA per play
31st-0.122nd-0.18
Pass EPA
31st-0.212nd-0.17
Run EPA
10th-0.045th-0.17
Success rate
17th43%3rd40%
Explosive plays
19th8%4th6%
Points per drive
24th1.894th1.61
Red zone TD
13th64%10th50%
Third downs
29th34%5th32%
Sacks
18th6%24th5%
Turnovers
27th16%3rd16%

Falcons: 34.8 sec a snap (31st fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense

TB offATL def
EPA per play
29th-0.107th-0.06
Pass EPA
30th-0.178th-0.01
Run EPA
7th-0.0114th-0.09
Success rate
27th40%11th42%
Explosive plays
20th8%21st9%
Points per drive
27th1.8210th1.97
Red zone TD
26th52%18th63%
Third downs
21st38%20th42%
Sacks
28th9%18th6%
Turnovers
22nd13%15th11%

Buccaneers: 33.9 sec a snap (28th fastest) · passes 12% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Falcons

  • QBMichael Penix Jr.-0.09 EPA a dropback · CPOE -5.3 · 150 dropbacks · 29th of 32
  • RBBijan Robinson-0.05 EPA a carry · 5.3 yds · 138 carries · 18th in EPA

Buccaneers

  • QBBaker Mayfield-0.23 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.3 · 133 dropbacks · 31st of 32
  • RBBucky Irving+0.01 EPA a carry · 5.0 yds · 140 carries · 11th in EPA

Recent Form

Falcons

  • W29–20vs 49ers+13
  • L23–31vs Bears−7
  • L23–30vs Ravens−9
  • W45–24at Saints+24

Buccaneers

  • W43–13at Panthers+32
  • L19–26vs Steelers−4
  • W24–16at Cowboys+15
  • L14–17vs Packers−4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.