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Browns at Steelers

Week 8 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Browns5-2 going in
6–27Final
Steelers5-2 going in

Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA

The Call How this works

GordStats had Steelers by 4.6✓, the book by 3.5 — 1.1 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

CLE 36%win chancePIT 64%
GordStatsPIT by 4.664% to win · CLE 18–PIT 22
BookPIT -3.5O/U 38.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Steelers' red-zone defense (2nd) meets Browns' red-zone offense (32nd).
  • Steelers' run game (1st) meets Browns' run defense (28th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense

CLE offPIT def
EPA per play
25th-0.0712th-0.02
Pass EPA
24th-0.0111th+0.01
Run EPA
27th-0.1711th-0.14
Success rate
18th42%14th43%
Explosive plays
25th7%15th9%
Points per drive
31st1.625th1.63
Red zone TD
32nd43%2nd38%
Third downs
30th32%8th34%
Sacks
32nd11%4th8%
Turnovers
16th12%7th14%

Browns: 30.9 sec a snap (7th fastest) · passes 4% more than expected

Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense

PIT offCLE def
EPA per play
15th+0.0215th+0.00
Pass EPA
27th-0.059th-0.01
Run EPA
1st+0.1528th-0.01
Success rate
16th44%13th43%
Explosive plays
8th9%32nd11%
Points per drive
21st1.9713th1.99
Red zone TD
28th50%9th50%
Third downs
22nd38%12th39%
Sacks
21st7%9th7%
Turnovers
13th9%14th11%

Steelers: 33.5 sec a snap (25th fastest) · passes 5% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Browns

  • QBDeshaun Watson+0.00 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.7 · 275 dropbacks · 22nd of 32
  • RBQuinshon Judkins-0.19 EPA a carry · 3.5 yds · 90 carries · 32nd in EPA

Steelers

  • QBAaron Rodgers-0.07 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.5 · 294 dropbacks · 28th of 32
  • RBJaylen Warren+0.15 EPA a carry · 6.0 yds · 108 carries · 2nd in EPA

Recent Form

Browns

  • W27–24at Titans+1
  • W13–10vs Ravens+4
  • L12–17at Jets−5
  • W27–24vs Steelers+4

Steelers

  • W16–10vs Saints+3
  • W26–19at Buccaneers+4
  • W34–22vs Colts+12
  • L24–27at Browns−4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.