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Colts at Jaguars

Week 8 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Colts2-5 going in
7–42Final
Jaguars4-2 going in

Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Jaguars by 7✓, the book by 10 — 3 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

IND 30%win chanceJAX 70%
GordStatsJAX by 770% to win · IND 20–JAX 28
BookJAX -10O/U 45.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Jaguars' takeaway defense (2nd) meets Colts' ball security (30th).
  • Jaguars' run game (4th) meets Colts' run defense (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense

IND offJAX def
EPA per play
27th-0.094th-0.11
Pass EPA
29th-0.166th-0.04
Run EPA
6th+0.012nd-0.23
Success rate
21st42%7th42%
Explosive plays
18th8%5th6%
Points per drive
25th1.833rd1.56
Red zone TD
15th59%3rd41%
Third downs
17th39%9th35%
Sacks
24th8%22nd6%
Turnovers
30th17%2nd17%

Colts: 32.4 sec a snap (21st fastest) · passes 0% less than expected

Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense

JAX offIND def
EPA per play
4th+0.1422nd+0.06
Pass EPA
4th+0.2320th+0.10
Run EPA
4th+0.0231st+0.01
Success rate
9th47%12th43%
Explosive plays
4th11%26th9%
Points per drive
6th2.7426th2.45
Red zone TD
5th68%16th62%
Third downs
3rd49%7th33%
Sacks
15th6%17th6%
Turnovers
8th7%31st5%

Jaguars: 32.4 sec a snap (20th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Colts

  • QBDaniel Jones-0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.9 · 275 dropbacks · 30th of 32
  • RBJonathan Taylor-0.05 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 147 carries · 19th in EPA

Jaguars

  • QBTrevor Lawrence+0.27 EPA a dropback · CPOE +3.7 · 219 dropbacks · 5th of 32
  • RBBhayshul Tuten+0.01 EPA a carry · 4.6 yds · 100 carries · 12th in EPA
  • WRParker Washington+0.45 EPA a target · 56% caught · 48 targets · 31st in EPA
  • TEBrenton Strange+0.40 EPA a target · 80% caught · 35 targets · 37th in EPA

Recent Form

Colts

  • L10–16at Vikings0
  • L20–26vs Titans−15
  • L22–34at Steelers−12
  • W30–13vs Commanders+15

Jaguars

  • L31–34vs Texans−6
  • W19–17vs Eagles−3
  • W22–17at Bengals+1
  • W35–6vs Patriots+28

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.