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Vikings at Lions

Week 8 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Vikings6-0 going in
15–19Final
Lions4-2 going in

Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Ford Field · Detroit, MI

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had it a coin flip, the book had Lions by 3 — 2.6 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

MIN 49%win chanceDET 51%
GordStatsCoin flip51% to win · MIN 22–DET 24
BookDET -3O/U 46.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Lions' pass rush (7th) meets Vikings' pass protection (30th).
  • Vikings' pass rush (1st) meets Lions' pass protection (17th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense

MIN offDET def
EPA per play
30th-0.1030th+0.13
Pass EPA
26th-0.0428th+0.22
Run EPA
28th-0.1912th-0.11
Success rate
31st38%27th46%
Explosive plays
17th8%29th10%
Points per drive
26th1.8227th2.47
Red zone TD
22nd53%28th74%
Third downs
25th38%27th46%
Sacks
30th9%7th7%
Turnovers
6th7%21st10%

Vikings: 32.9 sec a snap (23rd fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense

DET offMIN def
EPA per play
7th+0.091st-0.19
Pass EPA
5th+0.221st-0.20
Run EPA
14th-0.089th-0.16
Success rate
3rd50%1st36%
Explosive plays
3rd11%14th8%
Points per drive
4th2.781st1.18
Red zone TD
11th65%1st25%
Third downs
16th39%3rd30%
Sacks
17th6%1st11%
Turnovers
3rd5%6th15%

Lions: 31.4 sec a snap (9th fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Vikings

  • QBKyler Murray+0.00 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.6 · 182 dropbacks · 21st of 32
  • RBAaron Jones-0.18 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 102 carries · 31st in EPA
  • WRJustin Jefferson+0.46 EPA a target · 69% caught · 39 targets · 29th in EPA
  • TET.J. Hockenson+0.67 EPA a target · 84% caught · 37 targets · 9th in EPA

Lions

  • QBJared Goff+0.23 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.1 · 244 dropbacks · 7th of 32
  • RBJahmyr Gibbs-0.02 EPA a carry · 5.0 yds · 147 carries · 14th in EPA
  • WRJameson Williams+0.56 EPA a target · 62% caught · 42 targets · 18th in EPA
  • TESam LaPorta+0.64 EPA a target · 67% caught · 39 targets · 12th in EPA

Recent Form

Vikings

  • W16–10vs Colts0
  • W23–13at Saints+5
  • W15–10vs Dolphins−5
  • W23–16at Buccaneers+5

Lions

  • W20–17vs Packers0
  • W45–21at Cardinals+20
  • L26–32at Panthers−9
  • W31–24vs Jets−2

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.