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Chiefs at Broncos

Week 8 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Chiefs5-1 going in
24–28Final
Broncos5-2 going in

Sun, Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET · CBS

Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO

The Call How this works

GordStats had Broncos by 0.9✓, the book had Chiefs by 1.5 — 2.4 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

KC 47%win chanceDEN 53%
GordStatsDEN by 0.953% to win · KC 19–DEN 21
BookKC -1.5O/U 41.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Broncos' pass protection (5th) meets Chiefs' pass rush (31st).
  • Chiefs' run game (2nd) meets Broncos' run defense (25th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense

KC offDEN def
EPA per play
5th+0.138th-0.06
Pass EPA
12th+0.167th-0.03
Run EPA
2nd+0.0825th-0.05
Success rate
8th48%5th41%
Explosive plays
7th10%10th7%
Points per drive
9th2.326th1.83
Red zone TD
17th58%7th46%
Third downs
13th40%23rd42%
Sacks
3rd4%14th7%
Turnovers
4th6%16th11%

Chiefs: 31.8 sec a snap (15th fastest) · passes 6% more than expected

Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense

DEN offKC def
EPA per play
18th+0.0118th+0.03
Pass EPA
19th+0.0619th+0.09
Run EPA
15th-0.096th-0.17
Success rate
28th39%6th41%
Explosive plays
27th7%11th7%
Points per drive
23rd1.948th1.87
Red zone TD
10th65%5th42%
Third downs
32nd30%13th39%
Sacks
5th4%31st3%
Turnovers
5th6%10th13%

Broncos: 31.5 sec a snap (11th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Chiefs

  • QBPatrick Mahomes+0.16 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.9 · 235 dropbacks · 10th of 32
  • RBKenneth Walker III+0.07 EPA a carry · 5.4 yds · 134 carries · 6th in EPA
  • TETravis Kelce+0.64 EPA a target · 69% caught · 36 targets · 10th in EPA

Broncos

  • QBBo Nix+0.01 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.6 · 246 dropbacks · 20th of 32
  • RBJ.K. Dobbins-0.19 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 94 carries · 33rd in EPA

Recent Form

Chiefs

  • L3–20at Seahawks−14
  • W22–6vs Chargers+10
  • W30–27at Raiders−1
  • W24–10at Dolphins+9

Broncos

  • W30–16at Cardinals+9
  • W17–14vs Seahawks+6
  • W23–17at Chargers+4
  • L14–24at 49ers−6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.