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Jaguars at Ravens

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Jaguars5-2
at
Ravens4-4

Thu, Nov 5 · 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video

M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Jaguars by 9.5, the book by 8.5 — 1 point apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats says 47 to the book's 43.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

JAX 77%win chanceBAL 23%
GordStatsJAX by 9.577% to win · JAX 28–BAL 19
DraftKingsJAX -8.5O/U 43.5
Assumes outLamar JacksonRavens quarterback
ESPNJAX 81%win chance
Watch score79

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Jaguars' red-zone offense (5th) meets Ravens' red-zone defense (24th).
  • Jaguars' scoring defense (3rd) meets Ravens' scoring offense (18th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense

JAX offBAL def
EPA per play
4th+0.1414th+0.00
Pass EPA
4th+0.2313th+0.04
Run EPA
4th+0.0220th-0.07
Success rate
9th47%16th44%
Explosive plays
4th11%8th7%
Points per drive
6th2.7418th2.28
Red zone TD
5th68%24th67%
Third downs
3rd49%15th40%
Sacks
15th6%19th6%
Turnovers
8th7%24th9%

Jaguars: 32.4 sec a snap (20th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense

BAL offJAX def
EPA per play
13th+0.034th-0.11
Pass EPA
17th+0.106th-0.04
Run EPA
11th-0.052nd-0.23
Success rate
15th44%7th42%
Explosive plays
9th9%5th6%
Points per drive
18th2.033rd1.56
Red zone TD
14th59%3rd41%
Third downs
14th40%9th35%
Sacks
26th8%22nd6%
Turnovers
12th9%2nd17%

Ravens: 34.9 sec a snap (32nd fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Jaguars

  • QBTrevor Lawrence+0.27 EPA a dropback · CPOE +3.7 · 219 dropbacks · 5th of 32
  • RBBhayshul Tuten+0.01 EPA a carry · 4.6 yds · 100 carries · 12th in EPA
  • WRParker Washington+0.45 EPA a target · 56% caught · 48 targets · 31st in EPA
  • TEBrenton Strange+0.40 EPA a target · 80% caught · 35 targets · 37th in EPA

Ravens

  • QBTyler Huntley+0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.8 · 123 dropbacks · 16th of 32
  • RBDerrick Henry-0.14 EPA a carry · 4.0 yds · 138 carries · 28th in EPA
  • WRZay Flowers+0.56 EPA a target · 70% caught · 56 targets · 19th in EPA
  • WRRashod Bateman+0.68 EPA a target · 67% caught · 27 targets · 8th in EPA

Recent Form

Jaguars

  • W42–7vs Colts+28
  • L31–34vs Texans−6
  • W19–17vs Eagles−3
  • W22–17at Bengals+1

Ravens

  • L10–36at Bills−22
  • L13–35vs Bengals−21
  • L10–13at Browns−4
  • W30–23at Falcons+9

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.