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Bengals vs Falcons

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Bengals5-2
vs
Falcons3-5

Sun, Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET · NFL Net

Neutral site · Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid, Spain

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Bengals by 3.7, the book by 3 — 0.7 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

CIN 61%win chanceATL 39%
GordStatsCIN by 3.761% to win · CIN 27–ATL 23
DraftKingsCIN -3O/U 51.5
ESPNCIN 78%win chance
Watch score52Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bengals' takeaway defense (4th) meets Falcons' ball security (27th).
  • Bengals' third-down offense (1st) meets Falcons' third-down defense (20th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bengals Offense vs Falcons Defense

CIN offATL def
EPA per play
2nd+0.167th-0.06
Pass EPA
3rd+0.268th-0.01
Run EPA
16th-0.0914th-0.09
Success rate
2nd52%11th42%
Explosive plays
12th8%21st9%
Points per drive
5th2.7710th1.97
Red zone TD
6th68%18th63%
Third downs
1st53%20th42%
Sacks
8th4%18th6%
Turnovers
20th13%15th11%

Bengals: 32.2 sec a snap (18th fastest) · passes 11% more than expected

Falcons Offense vs Bengals Defense

ATL offCIN def
EPA per play
31st-0.1217th+0.03
Pass EPA
31st-0.2115th+0.06
Run EPA
10th-0.0422nd-0.06
Success rate
17th43%21st45%
Explosive plays
19th8%23rd9%
Points per drive
24th1.8916th2.10
Red zone TD
13th64%4th42%
Third downs
29th34%29th47%
Sacks
18th6%3rd8%
Turnovers
27th16%4th15%

Falcons: 34.8 sec a snap (31st fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bengals

  • QBJoe Burrow+0.28 EPA a dropback · CPOE +10.0 · 274 dropbacks · 4th of 32
  • RBChase Brown-0.13 EPA a carry · 3.8 yds · 81 carries · 27th in EPA
  • WRJa'Marr Chase+0.50 EPA a target · 71% caught · 59 targets · 24th in EPA
  • WRTee Higgins+0.90 EPA a target · 71% caught · 58 targets · 2nd in EPA

Falcons

  • QBMichael Penix Jr.-0.09 EPA a dropback · CPOE -5.3 · 150 dropbacks · 29th of 32
  • RBBijan Robinson-0.05 EPA a carry · 5.3 yds · 138 carries · 18th in EPA

Recent Form

Bengals

  • W43–36vs Titans−3
  • W35–13at Ravens+21
  • W31–24at Dolphins+4
  • L17–22vs Jaguars−1

Falcons

  • L0–16at Buccaneers−14
  • W29–20vs 49ers+13
  • L23–31vs Bears−7
  • L23–30vs Ravens−9

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.