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Browns at Saints

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Browns5-3
at
Saints2-5

Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Saints by 2.1, the book by 2.5 — they agree, no lean.

CLE 43%win chanceNO 57%
GordStatsNO by 2.157% to win · CLE 20–NO 22
DraftKingsNO -2.5O/U 43.5
ESPNNO 63%win chance
Watch score13Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Saints' pass rush (11th) meets Browns' pass protection (32nd).
  • Browns' takeaway defense (14th) meets Saints' ball security (29th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Browns Offense vs Saints Defense

CLE offNO def
EPA per play
25th-0.0728th+0.09
Pass EPA
24th-0.0122nd+0.13
Run EPA
27th-0.1729th+0.00
Success rate
18th42%31st49%
Explosive plays
25th7%18th9%
Points per drive
31st1.6228th2.62
Red zone TD
32nd43%13th57%
Third downs
30th32%30th50%
Sacks
32nd11%11th7%
Turnovers
16th12%23rd9%

Browns: 30.9 sec a snap (7th fastest) · passes 4% more than expected

Saints Offense vs Browns Defense

NO offCLE def
EPA per play
21st-0.0115th+0.00
Pass EPA
18th+0.069th-0.01
Run EPA
25th-0.1628th-0.01
Success rate
19th42%13th43%
Explosive plays
28th7%32nd11%
Points per drive
13th2.1713th1.99
Red zone TD
2nd75%9th50%
Third downs
8th43%12th39%
Sacks
10th5%9th7%
Turnovers
29th17%14th11%

Saints: 30.3 sec a snap (3rd fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Browns

  • QBDeshaun Watson+0.00 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.7 · 275 dropbacks · 22nd of 32
  • RBQuinshon Judkins-0.19 EPA a carry · 3.5 yds · 90 carries · 32nd in EPA

Saints

  • QBTyler Shough+0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.4 · 269 dropbacks · 17th of 32
  • RBKendre Miller-0.28 EPA a carry · 2.9 yds · 47 carries · 37th in EPA
  • WRChris Olave+0.55 EPA a target · 71% caught · 62 targets · 20th in EPA
  • WRDevaughn Vele+0.50 EPA a target · 69% caught · 42 targets · 25th in EPA

Recent Form

Browns

  • L6–27at Steelers−16
  • W27–24at Titans+1
  • W13–10vs Ravens+4
  • L12–17at Jets−5

Saints

  • L10–16vs Steelers−3
  • W34–27at Giants+6
  • L13–23vs Vikings−5
  • L24–45vs Falcons−24

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.