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Cowboys at Colts

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Cowboys3-5
at
Colts2-6

Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats calls it a coin flip, the book has Cowboys by 6: a lean to Colts +6.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

DAL 50%win chanceIND 50%
GordStatsCoin flip50% to win · DAL 26–IND 28
DraftKingsDAL -6O/U 51.5
ESPNDAL 62%win chance
Watch score47Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Colts' run game (6th) meets Cowboys' run defense (32nd).
  • Cowboys' scoring offense (3rd) meets Colts' scoring defense (26th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Cowboys Offense vs Colts Defense

DAL offIND def
EPA per play
6th+0.1122nd+0.06
Pass EPA
9th+0.1920th+0.10
Run EPA
9th-0.0431st+0.01
Success rate
6th48%12th43%
Explosive plays
30th6%26th9%
Points per drive
3rd2.8426th2.45
Red zone TD
8th68%16th62%
Third downs
4th48%7th33%
Sacks
2nd3%17th6%
Turnovers
10th8%31st5%

Cowboys: 30.4 sec a snap (4th fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

Colts Offense vs Cowboys Defense

IND offDAL def
EPA per play
27th-0.0931st+0.17
Pass EPA
29th-0.1629th+0.23
Run EPA
6th+0.0132nd+0.02
Success rate
21st42%26th46%
Explosive plays
18th8%28th10%
Points per drive
25th1.8329th2.63
Red zone TD
15th59%27th70%
Third downs
17th39%31st52%
Sacks
24th8%26th5%
Turnovers
30th17%30th7%

Colts: 32.4 sec a snap (21st fastest) · passes 0% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Cowboys

  • QBDak Prescott+0.15 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.1 · 286 dropbacks · 12th of 32
  • RBJavonte Williams+0.00 EPA a carry · 4.0 yds · 120 carries · 13th in EPA
  • WRCeeDee Lamb+0.40 EPA a target · 68% caught · 80 targets · 38th in EPA
  • WRGeorge Pickens+0.39 EPA a target · 63% caught · 52 targets · 39th in EPA

Colts

  • QBDaniel Jones-0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.9 · 275 dropbacks · 30th of 32
  • RBJonathan Taylor-0.05 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 147 carries · 19th in EPA

Recent Form

Cowboys

  • L30–33vs Cardinals−8
  • W38–21at Eagles+16
  • L13–23at Packers−6
  • L16–24vs Buccaneers−15

Colts

  • L7–42at Jaguars−28
  • L10–16at Vikings0
  • L20–26vs Titans−15
  • L22–34at Steelers−12

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.