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Broncos at Panthers

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Broncos6-2
at
Panthers3-4

Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Broncos by 4, the book by 3 — 1 point apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

DEN 62%win chanceCAR 38%
GordStatsDEN by 462% to win · DEN 25–CAR 20
DraftKingsDEN -3O/U 43.5
ESPNDEN 64%win chance
Watch score52Toss-up

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Broncos' pass protection (5th) meets Panthers' pass rush (29th).
  • Broncos' pass defense (7th) meets Panthers' passing game (22nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Broncos Offense vs Panthers Defense

DEN offCAR def
EPA per play
18th+0.0124th+0.07
Pass EPA
19th+0.0621st+0.12
Run EPA
15th-0.0919th-0.07
Success rate
28th39%22nd45%
Explosive plays
27th7%7th7%
Points per drive
23rd1.9424th2.39
Red zone TD
10th65%32nd80%
Third downs
32nd30%28th46%
Sacks
5th4%29th4%
Turnovers
5th6%17th10%

Broncos: 31.5 sec a snap (11th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

Panthers Offense vs Broncos Defense

CAR offDEN def
EPA per play
19th-0.018th-0.06
Pass EPA
22nd+0.017th-0.03
Run EPA
13th-0.0625th-0.05
Success rate
23rd41%5th41%
Explosive plays
16th8%10th7%
Points per drive
12th2.196th1.83
Red zone TD
12th64%7th46%
Third downs
20th39%23rd42%
Sacks
23rd8%14th7%
Turnovers
15th10%16th11%

Panthers: 28.5 sec a snap (1st fastest) · passes 9% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Broncos

  • QBBo Nix+0.01 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.6 · 246 dropbacks · 20th of 32
  • RBJ.K. Dobbins-0.19 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 94 carries · 33rd in EPA

Panthers

  • QBBryce Young+0.03 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.3 · 268 dropbacks · 18th of 32
  • RBChuba Hubbard+0.04 EPA a carry · 4.5 yds · 106 carries · 7th in EPA
  • WRTetairoa McMillan+0.41 EPA a target · 66% caught · 56 targets · 35th in EPA
  • TEDarren Waller+0.38 EPA a target · 61% caught · 23 targets · 40th in EPA

Recent Form

Broncos

  • W28–24vs Chiefs+3
  • W30–16at Cardinals+9
  • W17–14vs Seahawks+6
  • W23–17at Chargers+4

Panthers

  • L19–27at Packers−3
  • L13–43vs Buccaneers−32
  • W25–14at Eagles+11
  • W32–26vs Lions+9

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.