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Lions at Dolphins

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 12:37 PM ET

Lions5-2
at
Dolphins1-6

Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Lions by 6, the book by 7 — 1 point apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

DET 68%win chanceMIA 32%
GordStatsDET by 668% to win · DET 28–MIA 21
DraftKingsDET -7O/U 49.5
ESPNDET 78%win chance
Watch score38

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Lions' scoring offense (4th) meets Dolphins' scoring defense (32nd).
  • Lions' pass rush (7th) meets Dolphins' pass protection (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Lions Offense vs Dolphins Defense

DET offMIA def
EPA per play
7th+0.0932nd+0.18
Pass EPA
5th+0.2232nd+0.34
Run EPA
14th-0.0830th+0.01
Success rate
3rd50%32nd53%
Explosive plays
3rd11%27th10%
Points per drive
4th2.7832nd2.78
Red zone TD
11th65%19th64%
Third downs
16th39%32nd52%
Sacks
17th6%28th4%
Turnovers
3rd5%25th9%

Lions: 31.4 sec a snap (9th fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

Dolphins Offense vs Lions Defense

MIA offDET def
EPA per play
26th-0.0730th+0.13
Pass EPA
25th-0.0128th+0.22
Run EPA
22nd-0.1312th-0.11
Success rate
29th39%27th46%
Explosive plays
23rd7%29th10%
Points per drive
28th1.7727th2.47
Red zone TD
18th56%28th74%
Third downs
10th43%27th46%
Sacks
31st9%7th7%
Turnovers
23rd14%21st10%

Dolphins: 33.5 sec a snap (26th fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Lions

  • QBJared Goff+0.23 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.1 · 244 dropbacks · 7th of 32
  • RBJahmyr Gibbs-0.02 EPA a carry · 5.0 yds · 147 carries · 14th in EPA
  • WRJameson Williams+0.56 EPA a target · 62% caught · 42 targets · 18th in EPA
  • TESam LaPorta+0.64 EPA a target · 67% caught · 39 targets · 12th in EPA

Dolphins

  • QBMalik Willis-0.03 EPA a dropback · CPOE -7.2 · 183 dropbacks · 24th of 32
  • RBOllie Gordon II-0.03 EPA a carry · 4.4 yds · 83 carries · 15th in EPA
  • TEGreg Dulcich+0.43 EPA a target · 73% caught · 22 targets · 32nd in EPA

Recent Form

Lions

  • W19–15vs Vikings+4
  • W20–17vs Packers0
  • W45–21at Cardinals+20
  • L26–32at Panthers−9

Dolphins

  • L19–24vs Patriots+2
  • W28–25at Jets+5
  • L24–31vs Bengals−4
  • L10–15at Vikings+5

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.