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Jets at Chiefs

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Jets2-6
at
Chiefs5-2

Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Chiefs by 8.6, the book by 10 — 1.4 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats says 43 to the book's 46.5: a lean to the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

NYJ 26%win chanceKC 74%
GordStatsKC by 8.674% to win · NYJ 17–KC 26
DraftKingsKC -10O/U 46.5
ESPNKC 80%win chance
Watch score50

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Chiefs' red-zone defense (5th) meets Jets' red-zone offense (31st).
  • Chiefs' ball security (4th) meets Jets' takeaway defense (26th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Jets Offense vs Chiefs Defense

NYJ offKC def
EPA per play
16th+0.0118th+0.03
Pass EPA
15th+0.1019th+0.09
Run EPA
17th-0.106th-0.17
Success rate
11th45%6th41%
Explosive plays
6th10%11th7%
Points per drive
15th2.128th1.87
Red zone TD
31st44%5th42%
Third downs
23rd38%13th39%
Sacks
27th8%31st3%
Turnovers
9th8%10th13%

Jets: 33.7 sec a snap (27th fastest) · passes 2% less than expected

Chiefs Offense vs Jets Defense

KC offNYJ def
EPA per play
5th+0.1319th+0.04
Pass EPA
12th+0.1627th+0.19
Run EPA
2nd+0.088th-0.16
Success rate
8th48%24th46%
Explosive plays
7th10%12th8%
Points per drive
9th2.3219th2.32
Red zone TD
17th58%17th62%
Third downs
13th40%19th41%
Sacks
3rd4%10th7%
Turnovers
4th6%26th9%

Chiefs: 31.8 sec a snap (15th fastest) · passes 6% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Jets

  • QBGeno Smith+0.10 EPA a dropback · CPOE +6.0 · 259 dropbacks · 15th of 32
  • RBBraelon Allen+0.03 EPA a carry · 5.1 yds · 108 carries · 8th in EPA
  • WRGarrett Wilson+0.42 EPA a target · 69% caught · 61 targets · 34th in EPA
  • WRAdonai Mitchell+0.76 EPA a target · 62% caught · 26 targets · 4th in EPA

Chiefs

  • QBPatrick Mahomes+0.16 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.9 · 235 dropbacks · 10th of 32
  • RBKenneth Walker III+0.07 EPA a carry · 5.4 yds · 134 carries · 6th in EPA
  • TETravis Kelce+0.64 EPA a target · 69% caught · 36 targets · 10th in EPA

Recent Form

Jets

  • L33–38vs Raiders−6
  • L25–28vs Dolphins−5
  • L19–26at Patriots+3
  • W17–12vs Browns+5

Chiefs

  • L24–28at Broncos−3
  • L3–20at Seahawks−14
  • W22–6vs Chargers+10
  • W30–27at Raiders−1

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.