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Texans at Chargers

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Texans2-5
at
Chargers0-7

Sun, Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET · CBS

SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Texans by 3.4, the book by 4.5 — 1.1 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

HOU 60%win chanceLAC 40%
GordStatsHOU by 3.460% to win · HOU 22–LAC 19
DraftKingsHOU -4.5O/U 40.5
ESPNHOU 62%win chance
Watch score50Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Texans' pass rush (5th) meets Chargers' pass protection (29th).
  • Chargers' third-down defense (4th) meets Texans' third-down offense (24th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense

HOU offLAC def
EPA per play
11th+0.0510th-0.04
Pass EPA
10th+0.1810th+0.00
Run EPA
26th-0.1626th-0.04
Success rate
12th45%23rd45%
Explosive plays
15th8%25th9%
Points per drive
10th2.2617th2.16
Red zone TD
16th58%11th52%
Third downs
24th38%4th31%
Sacks
12th6%21st6%
Turnovers
2nd4%12th12%

Texans: 31.5 sec a snap (10th fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense

LAC offHOU def
EPA per play
32nd-0.2623rd+0.06
Pass EPA
32nd-0.2225th+0.15
Run EPA
32nd-0.3027th-0.03
Success rate
32nd35%10th42%
Explosive plays
29th7%30th10%
Points per drive
32nd1.2120th2.33
Red zone TD
29th47%26th68%
Third downs
28th35%17th41%
Sacks
29th9%5th8%
Turnovers
32nd20%28th8%

Chargers: 31.8 sec a snap (14th fastest) · passes 11% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Texans

  • QBC.J. Stroud+0.19 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.2 · 242 dropbacks · 8th of 32
  • RBWoody Marks-0.17 EPA a carry · 3.5 yds · 73 carries · 30th in EPA
  • WRNico Collins+0.57 EPA a target · 69% caught · 35 targets · 17th in EPA
  • WRJaylin Noel+0.64 EPA a target · 81% caught · 21 targets · 11th in EPA

Chargers

  • QBJustin Herbert-0.24 EPA a dropback · CPOE -5.1 · 214 dropbacks · 32nd of 32
  • RBOmarion Hampton-0.35 EPA a carry · 3.4 yds · 85 carries · 39th in EPA

Recent Form

Texans

  • L21–27vs Giants−17
  • W34–31vs Jaguars+6
  • W26–3at Titans+17
  • L30–34vs Cowboys−9

Chargers

  • L9–24at Rams−8
  • L6–22at Chiefs−10
  • L17–23vs Broncos−4
  • L23–30at Seahawks+4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.