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Buccaneers at Bears

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Buccaneers3-5
at
Bears5-2

Sun, Nov 8 · 8:20 PM ET · NBC

Soldier Field · Chicago, IL

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Bears by 2.3, the book by 5.5: a lean to Buccaneers +5.5.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

TB 43%win chanceCHI 57%
GordStatsCHI by 2.357% to win · TB 21–CHI 24
DraftKingsCHI -5.5O/U 47.5
ESPNCHI 60%win chance
Watch score81Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bears' pass rush (2nd) meets Buccaneers' pass protection (28th).
  • Buccaneers' takeaway defense (3rd) meets Bears' ball security (25th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense

TB offCHI def
EPA per play
29th-0.109th-0.05
Pass EPA
30th-0.174th-0.06
Run EPA
7th-0.0118th-0.07
Success rate
27th40%4th41%
Explosive plays
20th8%17th9%
Points per drive
27th1.8212th1.99
Red zone TD
26th52%22nd65%
Third downs
21st38%1st26%
Sacks
28th9%2nd8%
Turnovers
22nd13%20th10%

Buccaneers: 33.9 sec a snap (28th fastest) · passes 12% less than expected

Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense

CHI offTB def
EPA per play
8th+0.092nd-0.18
Pass EPA
8th+0.202nd-0.17
Run EPA
18th-0.105th-0.17
Success rate
7th48%3rd40%
Explosive plays
5th10%4th6%
Points per drive
8th2.344th1.61
Red zone TD
21st53%10th50%
Third downs
6th44%5th32%
Sacks
20th6%24th5%
Turnovers
25th14%3rd16%

Bears: 31.5 sec a snap (12th fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Buccaneers

  • QBBaker Mayfield-0.23 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.3 · 133 dropbacks · 31st of 32
  • RBBucky Irving+0.01 EPA a carry · 5.0 yds · 140 carries · 11th in EPA

Bears

  • QBCaleb Williams+0.35 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.9 · 139 dropbacks · 1st of 32
  • RBD'Andre Swift-0.11 EPA a carry · 3.8 yds · 103 carries · 24th in EPA
  • WRRome Odunze+0.73 EPA a target · 68% caught · 31 targets · 7th in EPA
  • WRKalif Raymond+0.48 EPA a target · 86% caught · 28 targets · 28th in EPA

Recent Form

Buccaneers

  • W16–0vs Falcons+14
  • W43–13at Panthers+32
  • L19–26vs Steelers−4
  • W24–16at Cowboys+15

Bears

  • W30–24vs Patriots+7
  • W31–23at Falcons+7
  • L7–31at Packers−26
  • W23–12vs Jets+1

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.