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Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

Georgia Tech2-3
at
Virginia Tech4-2

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · ACC Network

Lane Stadium · Blacksburg, VA

☀️ 53° Mostly sunny · rain 1% · wind 14 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Virginia Tech by 5.3, the book by 8.5: a lean to Georgia Tech +8.5.

On the total, GordStats says 56 to the book's 56.5: siding with the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

GT 37%win chanceVT 63%
GordStatsVT by 5.363% to win · GT 25–VT 30
DraftKingsVT -8.5O/U 56.5
ESPN FPIVT 74%win chance
Watch score60Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Virginia Tech's passing game (12th) meets Georgia Tech's pass defense (127th).
  • Georgia Tech's big-play offense (44th) meets Virginia Tech's big-play defense (129th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Georgia Tech Offense vs Virginia Tech Defense

GT offVT def
EPA per play
52nd+0.12101st+0.15
Run EPA
55th+0.0855th+0.06
Pass EPA
73rd+0.1798th+0.25
Success rate
50th43%85th43%
Explosiveness
44th0.94129th0.97
Line yards
68th2.961st2.41
Havoc
83rd15%2nd24%
Points per trip
95th3.5248th3.08
Third downs
99th36%33rd32%

Georgia Tech: 63 plays a game (108th most) · passes on 53% of plays

Virginia Tech Offense vs Georgia Tech Defense

VT offGT def
EPA per play
27th+0.18126th+0.20
Run EPA
102nd+0.04101st+0.10
Pass EPA
12th+0.33127th+0.31
Success rate
29th45%93rd44%
Explosiveness
31st0.95105th0.95
Line yards
118th2.7982nd2.99
Havoc
33rd12%88th15%
Points per trip
41st4.3091st3.72
Third downs
58th43%119th45%

Virginia Tech: 76 plays a game (8th most) · passes on 52% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Georgia Tech

  • QBAlberto Mendoza+0.31 EPA a dropback · 156 dropbacks · 53rd of 130 QBs
  • RBJustice Haynes+0.10 EPA a carry · 82 carries · 116th of 194 RBs
  • WRJordan Allen+0.96 EPA a target · 31 targets · 27th of 390 WRs
  • TEKevin Roche Jr.+0.33 EPA a target · 31 targets · 68th of 114 TEs

Virginia Tech

  • QBEthan Grunkemeyer+0.41 EPA a dropback · 204 dropbacks · 29th of 130 QBs
  • WRQue'Sean Brown+0.22 EPA a target · 50 targets · 323rd of 390 WRs
  • TELuke Reynolds+0.75 EPA a target · 47 targets · 25th of 114 TEs

Recent Form

Georgia Tech

  • W28-25vs Duke+7
  • L27-34at Stanford−14
  • W44-11vs Mercer−8
  • L24-45vs Tennessee−17

Virginia Tech

  • L20-25at California−12
  • L33-35vs Pitt+2
  • W21-14at Boston College−4
  • W35-26at Maryland+12

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).